Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher on US rate cut talk. Meats were lower.
SU is near 10.75 Favorable US Midwest forecast triggered new selling. Lower weekly US soybean exports offered resistance. Where is China? Some feel China crushers are uncovered for Sep-Feb. Still, China consumer prices rose less than expected and raised concern about domestic food demand. China soybean and soymeal futures are at 4 month lows. Dalian palmoil prices are lower with Malaysia stocks near 4 month high. Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 355 vs USDA 350 and 2024/25 at 449 vs USDA 455.
CU is near 3.93. US corn exports are up 30 pct vs ly. Dalian corn prices continued sharply lower raising questions about imports. Brazil corn futures made new lows on lack of China buying. Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,049 vs USDA 2,022 and 2024/25 at 2,312 vs USDA 2,102. Next weeks US Midwest temps could be above normal, rainfall near normal.
WU is near 5.68. Black Sea and EU prices remain soft. Trade est US 2024/25 what carryout at 788 vs USDA 758. Trade est US 2024 all wheat crop at 1,909 vs USDA previous est of 1,875 and 1,812 ly, Winter wheat is est at 1,316 vs 1,295 previous.. Spring wheat crop is est at 521 vs 468 ly. EU wheat export are down 1.7 pct while imports are up 5 pct. USDA est pf EU exports near 37 mmt appears high. Matif futures are high but not helping US. Black Sea prices are cheapest but August World trade is thin.
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