Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. CPI day. Fed day. Grains are mixed. SN is up. CN is up. WN is down. KWN is down. MWN is down. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and near $78. Gold is higher.
SN is near 11.84. US Midwest could see scattered rains then turns warn and dry for 10 days. USDA did announce 104 Mt US soybeans to China crusher. Wide range of US 23/24 carryout of 320-370 vs USDA 340, 24/25 range of 340-492 and USDA 445. Some est Brazil soybean crop at 148 mmt vs USDA 154. China est soybean imports at 96 mmt vs USDA 104 and 24.25 at 94 vs USDA 109. Looks like Brazil Congress abandoned President new tax rule. Matif rapeseed futures were higher on EU crop is 18.5 mmt vs 20.2 ly.
CN is near 4.51. US Midwest could see scattered rains then turns warn and dry for 10 days. China north plains is dry and warm. Dalian corn futures are near 3 week high. Range of US 23/24 carryout of 1,950-2,022 vs USDA 2,022, 24/25 range of 1,975-2,102 and USDA 2.102. Some est Brazil corn crop at 114 mmt vs USDA 122. Argentina 42 mmt vs USDA 53. China est 23/24 and 24/25 imports at 32.5 mmt vsR USDA 46. Looks like Brazil Congress abandoned President new tax rule.
WN is near 6.20. Talk of losses of 15-30 pct for Russia crop due to frost and a dry and warm Russia forecast rallied wheat futures. USDA est Russia wheat crop at 88 mmt, Some are below 80. Some also felt wheat futures were oversold. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout at 778 vs 766 last month. Trade est US wheat crop at 1,880 mil bu vs USDA May est of 1,858. Egypt bought 400 mt wheat from Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine $30-35 dollars cheaper than their last tender.
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