Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is down . CU is down. WU is unch. KWU is unch. MWU is up. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch. Slower US economy and lower US rates could weigh on Dollar. Some hope this will support raw material prices. Crude is unch. Gold is higher.
SU is near 10.71. US old crop soybean export commit is down 14 pct from last year. Bulls need more US soybean sales to push futures over 11.00. Soymeal led the product rally with good weekly US sales, talk of Argentina crush workers strike and some concern about a warmer and drier US west Midwest and plains weather forecast. SMU is back near May and June support and 330. BOU is below 46 cents and moving average support. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher.
CU is near 4.04. US old crop corn export commit is up 37 pct from last year. Domestic ethanol use pace is slightly higher than forecast. Next weeks price performance will depend on US heat intensity and location. Managed funds remain short 300,000 corn futures after covering 30,000. CZ is above 20 day moving average for the first time since May. US farmers will need to decide how high is high to increase cash sales.
WU is near 5.37. Annual US spring wheat yield was a record 54.5 vs 47.4 last year. Report of unified and lush fields across the entire ND state helps support the record yield. US wheat export commit is up 48 pct vs ly. Despite increase HRS sales to EU and hot US and Canada HRS temps, MWU is back below 20 day moving average. Slow import demand and lower Russia prices offers equal resistance.
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