Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 4 cents and near 14.36. SMF is near 402.0. BOF is near 73.55. CH is down 3 cents and near 6.55. WH is down 14 cents and near 8.24. KWH is down 7 cents and near 9.42. MWH is down 3 cents and near 9.70. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold. copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are slipping lower on rains in Argentina and lower weekly US soybean export inspections. China bought 40 soybean cargoes last week but mostly South America. China retail sales and industrial production were down and disappointing. Brazil soybean export prices are lower than US Jan forward. US soybean exports were down 11 pct vs ly. Increase US soyoil biofuel capacity is growing. Lower South America soyoil prices plus freight does work into US. Matif rapeseed futures are near 4 week low. Dalian soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices are lower.
Corn futures are lower. Lower Brazil and Ukraine corn exports prices are reducing demand for US exports. Trade still waiting for news on Ukraine export corridor by most feel Russia will agree to an extension. CH is below the lower end of the 3 month trading range. CH is becoming oversold. US corn exports are down 30 pct vs ly. Export commit is down 54 pct. Brazil corn export line up is above normal. Argentina rains will help crops with 42 pct of area dry to very dry. Matif corn futures are down 9 straight days and near 10 week low on talk Ukraine corridor will be extended. There is also demand concern with bird flu cases expanding in EU and Asia.
Wheat futures are lower led by Chicago. Iraq bought 200 mt US HRS for Jan. US winter wheat crop ratings increased 2 pct to 32 pct G/E vs 64 ly. Weekly US wheat exports are down 4 pct from ly. Matif wheat futures are near 10 week low and responding to talk of higher Russia wheat exports. Saudi bought more wheat than expected with various origins. Most feel most will eventually be shipped from Russia. US SRW export prices are near $365 vs Russia $320. US Midwest and south plains weather forecast is cold and dry. EU is seeing normal rains. West Australia wheat yields are higher than expected but there remains concern about quality of bigger east crop. Temps turn colder in Russia and Ukraine.
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