Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply lower. Month end. SU is down 26 cents and near 14.06. SMU is near 425.5. BOU is near 63.80. CU is down 11 cents and near 5.09. WU is down 19 cents and near 6.85. KWU is down 11 cents and near 8.44. MWU is down 8 cents and near 8.87. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch and near $80.
Normal US Midwest weather forecast is triggering new selling. Weekend rains were in WI,N IL, SW MI, IN, and SE. Rains are in NE today. Latest China economic data suggest slowdown but China continues to pledge to fully boost its economy in its latest Congressional meeting that ended last Tuesday.
Soybean futures are lower with SU near 14.00. Most look for warm and dry weather last week to drop this weeks crop rating 1-3 pct. Forecast of cooler temps this week offers resistance. USDA August crop report is in 2 weeks with some looking for SX support near 13.50. Last week, China bought 8-10 Brazil Sep-Oct soybean cargoes, 12-14 Sep/Oct-Feb US gulf and 4-6 US Oct PNW. There were no August soymeal deliveries. There were 50 soyoil deliveries at Volga, SD. JP Morgan customer stopped 47.
Corn futures continue to struggle due to slow export and talk of better US Midwest temps. CU is near 5.00. New Argentina corn dollar program triggered increase farmer selling there. Uncertainty over final US corn yield and Grain flow from Ukraine adds to volatility. Lack of resting buy orders increases sharpness of market moves. Russia is blockading Ukraine ports. Putin said reduced Ukraine exports is adding value to Russia exports.
Wheat volatility continues with talk of lower Canada, US, Russia and Argentina wheat crops and lower EU quality. WU is near 7.00, KWU 8.50 and MWU is below 9.00. Key remains latest headline from Ukraine and World wheat import demand. US wheat export prices are too high for new demand. Russia is blockading Ukraine ports. Putin said reduced Ukraine exports is adding value to Russia exports.
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