Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SF is up 3 cents and near 13.14. SMF is near 408.7. BOF is near 51.36. CH is unch and near 4.87. WH is down 5 cents and near 6.37. KWH is down 2 cents and near 6.65. MWH is down 2 cents and near 7.35. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Key US jobs report today.
SF is back above 13.00 support. Weekly US soybean export sales were 56 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,190 or down 16 pct vs ly. USDA est a 12 pct drop. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Trade est US soybean carryout near 243 mil bu vs USDA 245. Range of est 215-270. USDA should raise crush but could lower exports an equal amount. Trade wants USDA to raise US soyoil demand due to data suggesting higher use for renewable fuel. CONAB est soybean crop at 160 mmt vs 162 previous and USDA 163. Some private est are closer to 155. C/N Brazil forecast is drier. 52 pct of Argentina soybean crop is planted with crop est at 50 mmt vs USDA 48 and 25 ly.
CH is near 4.87. CONAB est Brazil corn crop at 118 mmt vs USDA 129. Trade est USDA will est the crop at 127 today. Weekly US export sales were near 51 mil bu. Total commit is up 35 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 25 pct gain. Trade est US corn carryout near 2,152 mil bu vs USDA 2,156. Range of est 2,106-2,203. 40 pct of Argentina corn crop is planted with crop now rated 36 pct G/E vs 18 previous. Crop is est near 55 mmt vs 34 ly. China Ag Minister est China corn imports at 17.5 mmt vs USDA 23 and recent rumors of 30-40.
Wheat futures are lower. WH is now near 6.37. Recent high was 6.49 and highest since August. Total SRW sales are near 145 mil bu and equal to USDA goal. US SRW end stocks are on the decline. USDA should raise SRW export today. Italy, Spain and N Africa are dry. Rains are forecasted for US south plains. Egypt bought 440 mt Russia wheat. Russia prices were $20 below French and $60 below one Romanian offer. Argentina harvest is near 48 pct done with crop rated 20 pct G/E vs 6 ly. USDA est crop at 15 mmt vs 12 ly. Trade est US wheat carryout at 684 mil bu vs 684 last month. Range 670-700. Trade est World wheat stocks at 258 mmt unch from Nov and 269 ly.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
