Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up. CU is unch. WU is down. KWU is down. MWU is down. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Key US financial reports this week include CPI and retail sales. PPI suggested lower inflation.
SU is near 9.52. Managed funds have sold 22,000 soybean contract since USDA report. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil all traded lower. Dalian soymeal futures are lowest since 2020. US central and west Midwest rains helps support USDA record soybean crop estimate. USDA announced 132mt new crop soybeans sold to China. USDA est US 2024/25 soybean exports at 1,850 mil bu vs 1,700 ly. Still, SU-SX spread has widened to -16. CONAD est crop at 147 mmt vs USDA 153. South America soybean basis are lower while soymeal are firmer.
CU is near 3.77. Favorable central US Midwest weather offers resistance. Fact US farmers have 2023 corn to sell has widened CU-CZ spread to -20. USDA did announce 137 mt new crop was sold to Mexico. USDA est US 2024/25 corn exports at 2,300 mil bu vs 2,250 this year. USDA est US ethanol use at 5,450 mil bu vs 5,176 ly. CONAB est corn crop at 115.6 mmt vs USDA 122. They est export at 36 mmt vs 33.5 previous and USDA 50. Brazil export corn prices are firm on slow farmer selling. Dalian corn futures were lower
WU is near 5.25. US futures are trying to adjust to USDA lowering the HRS spring crop vs higher HRW supply. WU rejected 5.50 and is back below the simple 20 day moving average. KWU rejected 5.60 and is also back below the simple 20 day moving average. MWU is near higher end of a 5,75 to 6,00 range. There are rumors that Egypt may be negotiating a large Black Sea wheat purchase.
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