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January 14 Afternoon Comments

Soybeans, soymeal and corn traded lower. Wheat traded higher soyoil ended higher. US stocks were higher. Crude was higher. Gold was lower.
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Soybeans, soymeal and corn traded lower. Wheat traded higher soyoil ended higher. US stocks were higher. Crude was higher. Gold was lower.

 
SOYBEANS

Soybeans traded both sides of Mondays close. Talk that China may buy as much as 10 mmt US soybean duty free for October offered support. Favorable South America weather, talk of increase US farmer selling and late headlines that US tariffs on China goods may stay in effect until after the US election despite a new trade deal offered resistance. US and China Are expected to sign the deal tomorrow morning. Dec China soybean imports were up 67 pct from last year. Imports were 9.5 mmt vs 5.7 last year. Some est World 2020 total Soybean acres near 128 million hectares vs 122.3 this past year. This would produce a crop near 367 mmt vs 338 this year. This would suggest 2020/21 World soybean end stocks Near 104.4 mmt vs 96.6 this year. This could weigh on 2020 soybean futures versus todays close.



 
CORN

Corn futures were near unchanged. Supply bears are looking for higher 2020 supply which could weigh on prices. US farmers and elevators have sold corn this week after a disappointing USDA Crop report and favorable South America weather. Corn futures open interest has increased. Some feel this could be linked in part to China buyers buying corn futures before they buy US corn. There has been talk that China could buy 5 mmt US corn, 5 mmt US sorghum, 4-5 billion gallons of ethanol and 4 mmt US DDG. Many doubt the amounts but that new demand could rally corn futures higher than expected. Some estimate that World 2020 corn acres will be near 192 million hectares vs 190 this past year. This would produce a global crop near 1.136 mmt vs 1.099 this past year. World feed use is near 693 mmt vs 672 this year. Exports would be near 174 mmt vs 170 this year. This would suggest World corn end stocks near 316 mmt vs 298. This would offer resistance to futures prices.



 
WHEAT

Wheat futures traded higher. Open interest continues to increase. Some link this in part to increase global trade and talk China could buy US wheat under a new trade deal. Normally China does not buy US HRS. There is very little US SRW for sale. This suggest if they buy US it would HRW. There is very little selling above the market. Funds continue so be net buyers of wheat futures and adding to an already net long position. Word of higher EU prices offered support. Some link this to a pickup in new export business, lower 2019 supplies and France labor strikes slowing cash movement. Wheat futures may also be support by talk to new Russian export trader saying that they will limit Russia wheat exports after Jan 31 to 20 mmt. USDA estimates total 2020 Russia exports near 35 mmt. Some estimate that World 2020 wheat acres will be near 218 million hectares vs 219 this past year. This would produce a global crop near 758 mmt vs 763 this past year. World food use is near 616 mmt vs 609 this year. Exports would be near 182 mmt vs 184 this year. This would suggest World wheat end stocks near 270 mmt vs 280.

 
 

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