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Jan 13 Global Ag News Headlines

commentary by ADMIS Research Team

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 4, HRS Wheat down 4, Corn is unchanged, Soybeans down 5, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 25 points. 

For the week, Winter Wheat prices were up 9 cents for Soft Red Winter, up 20 for the Hard Red Winter, and up 11 for Hard Red Spring; Corn was down 1 cent; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil down 75 points; March crushing margins were down 8 cents at $0.99; March, oil-share was unchanged 36%. 

Grain futures now trying to play the guessing game of when and what will China buy under a new trade agreement. This with South America weather normal and suggest potential for increased supplies over demand. There is also a good chance that US 2020 crops could also be above demand. 2020 could also be a key US political year and money flow could still go to stocks and energies as long as interest rates stay low and there is tension around the world. 

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 38 yuan in Soybeans, up 1 in Corn, down 26 in Soymeal, down 32 in Soyoil, and down 4 in Palm Oil. 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 43 ringgit at 3,091 (basis March) on a stronger ringgit. 

The South American weather forecast for Brazil continues to see rains fall through much of the region over the next 6 to 10 day period. 

The Argentine weather forecast has a front bringing moderate rainfall through much of the growing region the beginning of the week with things turning drier the rest of the week, the weekend, and early next week. 

Deliveries totaled 132 for Soymeal; 417 Soyoil, and 55 of Soybeans. 

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net buyers of 13,000 Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 6,000 Soyoil. 

We estimate Managed Money net long 39,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 74,000 Corn; net long 5,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 25,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 101,000 Soyoil.  

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 7,800 contracts; HRW Wheat up 4,900; Corn up 21,600; Soybeans up 5,200 contracts; Soymeal up 4,700 lots, and; Soyoil up 7,900. 

There were changes in registrations (down 39 in Corn, down 133 in Soybeans, up 180 in Soyoil, up 50 in Soymeal)---Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 58; Soybeans 195; Soyoil 2,793 lots; Soymeal 1,660; Rice 565; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 788 contracts. 

TODAY------EXPORT INSPECTIONS--- 

China's commitments in the Phase 1 trade deal with the United States were not changed during a lengthy translation process and will be released this week as the document is signed in Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said; the deal reached on Dec. 13 still calls for China to buy $40 billion to $50 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually and a total of $200 billion of U.S. goods over two years. 

For the week ended January 2nd, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 6% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 17% with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year. U.S. Corn sales are running 43% behind a year ago, shipments 54% behind .U.S. Soybean sales are running 2% behind a year ago, shipments 23% ahead

---Soymeal sales 19% behind on the year, shipments down 7%

---Soyoil sales 6% ahead of a year ago, shipments 58% ahead 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said it will resurvey farmers in five northern U.S. states this spring who reported a significant number of un-harvested corn and soybean acres for the government's annual crop production summary, which was released on Friday; the USDA said in a statement that it might release updated acreage, yield, production, and stocks estimates for corn and soybeans later this spring, if changes are warranted; the affected states are Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. 

Speculators did not significantly alter their views toward Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds in the days before the USDA data storm last Friday, and the numbers issued by the U.S. agency did not seem to give them much pause either; professional trading funds maintain bullish views in Chicago-traded wheat and they are still pessimistic toward corn futures and options; but they have adopted a slightly optimistic stance toward CBOT soybeans ahead of this week’s expected Phase 1 trade deal signing between the United States and China. 

China is in a difficult position of trying to balance poverty elimination and food security with the broader global push for it to liberalize its grain imports, says Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia commodity analyst at INTL FCStone; China's Ministry of Commerce has said it will improve regulatory management of its quotas for corn, rice, and wheat, operate the quota system in line with WTO rules and likely increase grain imports 

---Heilongjiang Province, China's major grain producer, plans to further reduce the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides on farmland in 2020 to boost green agriculture and food security; farmland featuring reduced chemical use will be expanded to 3 million hectares in 2020 from last years's 2.67 million hectares, according to the government work report delivered at the ongoing annual session of the provincial People's Congress. 

Soybean exports from Brazil to China in January may fall to around half of January 2019's levels, data from shipping company Cargonave showed, a sign that the imminent signing of a trade deal between China and the United States weighed on business; according to shipping schedules through Jan. 31, soy cargos headed from Brazilian ports to China totaled about 800,000 tons, down from about 1.4 million tons lined up for shipping to the same destination in January of last year; there were 21 vessels scheduled to ship soybeans to the Asian country in January 2019 compared with 12 this month, the data showed. 

Export prices for Russian wheat reached this season's high last week due to growth in Chicago benchmarks, a stronger rouble, demand from Egypt and weather-related concerns about the 2020 Black Sea crop; the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content, loaded from Black Sea ports and intended for delivery in January, rose by $4 from the end of 2019 to $222 per ton on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, consultancy SovEcon said; IKAR, another agricultural consultancy in Moscow, pegged wheat at $220.5 per ton, up $2.5. 

Russia's January exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 2.25 million tons, down from 2.95 million tons in December, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said 

Ukrainian grain exports from sea ports dropped to 1.12 million tons in the week of Jan. 4 to Jan. 11 from 1.19 million tons a week earlier, preliminary data from APK-Inform consultancy showed

---Wheat exports decreased to 225,000 tons from 253,000 tons, while corn shipments fell to 855,000 tons from 886,000 tons

---the consultancy said grain exports jumped to about 32.1 million tons so far during the 2019-20 July-June season, from 21 million tons in the same period in 2018-19 

Strikes over pension reform in France could slow grain exports from this month by preventing enough supplies from reaching ports and by making the French crop too expensive to compete overseas; a month-old public transport strike that has crippled rail services and rolling stoppages by dock workers have left companies in the European Union's biggest grain producer struggling to get grain to ports and onto vessels during a period of strong overseas demand. 

Indian palm oil importers have effectively stopped all purchases from Malaysia after the government privately warned them to shun product from the country following a diplomatic spat, industry and government sources said; the warning, issued last week, comes almost in parallel with New Delhi's move to restrict imports of refined palm oil and palmolein after Malaysia's Prime Minister criticized India's actions in Kashmir and its new citizenship law; currently, Indian buyers are not making any crude or refined palm oil purchases from top supplier Malaysia