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Ag Market View for Nov 8

Soybeans, soymeal and wheat traded lower. Corn traded higher. US stocks were marginally lower. US Dollar was higher.

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USDA left the US 2019 soybean crop unchanged from October. They also left World end stocks unchanged from October. This was little new data for the bulls. Trade will not be watching for news about US and China trade and South America weather for direction. Some feel Jan soybean could be in a 9.10-9.50 range. USDA kept the US 2019 soybean crop near 3,550 mil bu versus 3,510 expected. USDA dropped US soybean exports 15 mil bu. Net result is a US 2019/20 carryout near 475 versus 428 expected and 460 in October. USDA left World soybean carryin near 109 mmt. USDA continues to est the World crop near 336mmt, crush 302 and trade 149. Net result is a carryout near 95 mmt versus 95 previous. USDA kept Brazil 2020 soybean crop near 123 mmt and China imports at 85 mmt. 


Corn futures closed marginally higher. Futures rallied after USDA dropped the US 2019 corn crop and yield. The fact the decline was not as much as the bulls hoped for and at the same time USDA dropped demand to offset the lower supply offered resistance. New US export sales to the known helped and already strong basis. Key now will be if the funds want to hold their large net short after US harvest and South America weather. USDA lowered US 2019 corn crop 118 mil bu to 13,661. They lowered the yield to 167.0 versus 168.4 in October. Supply bulls still looking for a lower final crop in January. USDA also dropped feed use 25 mil bu, ethanol 25 mil bu and exports 50. Some question USDA feed number being 400 mil bu below last year despite higher animal numbers. Net result is US 2019/20 carryout near 1,910 versus 1,817 expected and 1,929 in October. USDA dropped World corn carryin 4 mmt due to a lower Brazil supply. USDA continues to est the World crop near 1,102 mmt, feed use 694 and trade 167. Net result is a carryout near 296 mmt versus 302 previous and 320 last year.


Wheat trade mixed to lower. WZ is near 5.10. KWZ is near 4.21. MWZ Is near 5.18. Fact USDA dropped US 2019 crop especially spring wheat offered support. Talk that China was buying French wheat also supported futures. Fact there is adequate global supplies continues to limit the upside in prices. USDA lowered US wheat carryout 29 mil bu to 1,014 vs 1,035 expected and 1,043 in October. The drop was due to a 42 mil bu drop in crop size. USDA dropped the HRS crop 37 mil bu and Durum 4 mil bu. USDA dropped wheat food use 5 mil bu (millennials?) but left exports at 950. USDA left World wheat carryin near 277 mmt. USDA continues to est the World crop near 765 mmt, domestic use 755 and trade 180. Net result is a carryout near 288 mmt versus 287 previous. USDA dropped Argentina .5 and Australia .8 but raised EU 1.0, Ukraine .3 and Russia 1.5.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.