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Global Ag News Headlines July 11

commentary by ADMIS Ag Research Team

Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 1 cent in the SRW Wheat, down 1 in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal down $0.50, and; Soyoil up 10 points. 

Chinese Ag futures (September) settled down 7 yuan in Soybeans, down 3 in Corn, up 24 in Soymeal, up 4 in Soyoil, and up 2 in Palm Oil. 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 2 ringgit at 1,939 (basis September) on expectations of better export demand. 

U.S. soybeans edged lower on Thursday, falling from a 10-day high touched earlier in the session, as traders readied for a widely watched U.S. government report that is expected to lay bare the impact of recent adverse weather. Corn fell, giving back nearly all the gains from the previous session. Wheat also retreated.

Analysts said the market was nervously awaiting the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest world supply and demand estimates. "The last few USDA reports have been counter-intuitive. People do not want to be caught on the wrong side of any moves and so are very wary of taking positions," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank. Analysts expect the USDA to lower its soybean yield estimate to 48.6 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 49.5 bpa in June. The expected downgrade will come just days after the USDA said the condition of North American soybeans declined. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast will see some remnants of a tropical system the middle of next week but, rainfall still looks limited over the next 10 days---temps will be running near average over the next 3 to 4 day with above average temps coming in the 6 to 10 day period. 

The Southern U.S. Plains will see limited rain over the next 10 days with just some hit and miss activity---temps will be running average to above average over the next 5 days and then well above average next week. 

The Northern U.S. Plains has average to a bit below average rainfall over the next 10 days---temps will be running near average over the next 5 days warming to above average after that. 

The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states, outside of the tropical disturbance, will continue to see a seasonable pattern of isolated to scattered showers each day during the next two weeks. 

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook has limited rains and above average temps for the majority of the Plains and Midwest; more average temps are seen in the eastern Midwest. 

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 40 lots; Soyoil 152; Rice 14; Corn 132; HRW Wheat 3; Oats ZERO; Soybeans 214, SRW Wheat ZERO, and; HRS Wheat ZERO. 

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 8,000 Corn; bought 6,000 contracts of Soybeans; net bought 1,000 Soymeal, and; were net even in Soyoil. 

We estimate Managed Money net long 36,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 204,000 Corn; net short 27,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 13,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 30,000 Soyoil.  

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,600; Corn up 1,300; Soybeans up 9,000 contracts; Soymeal down 380 lots, and; Soyoil down 550 lots. 

There were changes in registrations (Corn down 163; Soybeans down 53; Rice up 10)--Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1,828; Soybeans 378; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal 745; Rice 1,004; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 1,176 contracts. 

TODAY-----EXPORT SALES---USDA PRODUCTION, S/D REPORTS---

In tender activity---S. Korea bought 80,000t U.S. wheat---Egypt bought 240,000t---Japan bought 98,000t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat---

The weather woes are heaping more pain on the battered U.S. agricultural sector already hard-hit by a yearlong crop supply glut and the U.S.-China trade war now entering its second year. The tariffs China imposed on soybean exports from the United States in retaliation for U.S. duties on Chinese goods curbed shipments of the most valuable U.S. export crop. 

The excessive rains and flooding could also have a lasting impact on the grain merchants, whose latest round of quarterly earnings will start this week. ADM and Cargill are viewed as particularly vulnerable due to their outsized U.S. footprints. Reduced U.S. corn and soybean plantings will likely cut available crop supplies in the United States, potentially driving up raw material costs and squeezing margins. 

"They thrive on volumes and margins and both of those are going to be depressed in the coming year with the bushels being smaller and the margins likely not being there," said Kevin McNew, chief economist with Farmers Business Network. "Export business is just going to fall off the cliff, especially for corn." The U.S. corn crop was more affected by floods than soybeans, because soy can be planted later in the season.

The first of the companies scheduled to report is privately held Cargill, which announces fiscal fourth quarter earnings on Thursday.

U.S. ethanol production for the week ended July 5th averaged 1.047 mil barrels per day (down 3.15% versus a week ago, up 1.36% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 23.009 mil barrels (up 0.72% versus a week ago, up 2.75% versus last year); corn use for the week was 108 mil bu (111.6 mil last week and versus the 92.4 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections). 

China and the United States can find a way to resolve their trade dispute if each other's concerns are taken into consideration, the commerce ministry said; ministry spokesman Gao Feng also said during a weekly news briefing that China hopes the U.S. will remove sanctions on Huawei Technologies Co Ltd as soon as possible and clear a path for healthy bilateral relations.

---As trade talks resume between China and the United States, President Donald Trump's advisers are confident he can portray his stance against Beijing as a strength in the 2020 election, despite making concessions and having no deal in sight. 

---Republican senators along the northern U.S. border are asking officials to address grain in the trade deal with Canada and Mexico; U.S. lawmakers from Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota sent a letter to the chief agricultural negotiator for the U.S. trade representative, calling for an agreement that creates a more level playing field for wheat producers. 

---U.S. President Donald Trump’s request for a review of the administration’s expanded use of biofuel waivers for oil refiners is holding up its decisions on 2018 applications; Trump may soon host a meeting on the issue 

China's agriculture ministry said it was lowering its forecast for corn consumption in the 2019/20 crop year amid outbreaks of African swine fever across the country; the ministry said corn consumption was now seen 2 million tons lower than last month's forecast at 280 million tons because a huge fall in the pig herd was reducing demand for feed; China has said its sow herd declined by a record 23.9% in May from a year earlier, but some estimate the number to be twice that level; while demand will be lower, the country also planted less corn, the ministry said in its monthly crops report, thanks to a greater-than-expected shift in the type of crops being grown 

---The fall in Dalian corn prices during the past two days is due to weak demand on account of the spread of African swine fever, says INTL FCStone in its daily report; it notes that the U.S. Department of Agriculture published a grain update for China which estimated 2018-19 feed use at 177 million metric tons, down 15 million metric tons from the level in 2017-18. 

Russia expects grain exports for the 2019/2020 season to be 45 million tons, including 36 million tons of wheat, Interfax news agency quoted the agriculture ministry as saying; the forecast is unchanged from the one the ministry gave in May. 

The heatwave that struck Europe in June will hurt the wheat and corn harvest, French consultancy Strategie Grains said in a report; European Union members will produce 140.6 million tons of soft wheat in the 2019-20 season, Strategie said, 2.2 million tons less than it forecast a month ago; farmers are expected to produce 62.7 million tons of corn, the EU's second-biggest crop, 0.7 million tons less than the consultancy predicted in its June report; Strategie cut its forecast for overall production--which also includes barley, durum and other cereals--for a third straight month, to 301.4 million tons from 305 million tons; the harvest is still expected to be considerably stronger than last year's drought-struck crop, and Strategie forecasts that stockpiles of wheat will rise over the course of the 2019-20 marketing year; in corn, however, Strategie expects stockpiles to shrink, which could boost prices. 

Protein readings in the early stages of this year's wheat harvest in France were improving after initial samples on the west coast showed levels below export requirements, grain group Soufflet said; France is widely expected gather a larger crop this year but grain quality, as measured by criteria including protein content, is also crucial to secure sales to foreign milling customers. 

There's no sign of an end to Australia's crippling drought, with weather officials saying seasonal winter rains are unlikely over coming months due to Indian Ocean climate conditions. 

---Wheat and barley production in Australia is forecast to rise in 2019-20 due to expanded planting area and improved moisture conditions in some production regions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says in a note; but drought conditions, still remain in a substantial part of the growing area; the USDA forecasts Australian wheat production to increase to 21.5 million metric tons in 2019-20, which is still below average levels 

India's monsoon rains in the week ending on Wednesday were above average for the first time since the start of the season on June 1, helping farmers to accelerate the planting of summer-sown crops and easing concerns of drought.