Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is unch. CU is down. WU is down. KWU is down. MWU is down. US stocks are lower. There is more concern about US recession. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Global protest against immigration adds to market uncertainty.
SU is near 10.21. Last week. China bought a few US soybean cargoes. SU has found support near 10.00. Some still hope China buying could push SX closer to 11.00 before 2025 South America harvest. Talk of record US crop and lower China demand for US soybean could limit upside in prices. Bears could see US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 355 and new crop 482. 7 day US Midwest weather forecast could be warm and dry.
CU is near 3.86. Corn futures are near multi year lows. Talk of a record US 2024 corn crop and fact US farmers still have 2023 crop corn to sell has weighed on futures. US corn export prices are lowest cost origin. Still demand is now enough to lower US carryout. Fact Crude oil has dropped from $83 to $71 has also weighed on corn futures. Bears could see US 2023/24 corn carryout at 1,922 and new crop 2,346.
WU is near 5.31. Lower US equity market and lower commodity price could offer resistance to wheat. Higher US, Canada and Australia wheat crops and reduced global import demand has weighed on wheat futures. Increase Middle East tension could lower demand. EU and Black Sea crop could be lower. This could help support wheat futures. USDA could lower US and World wheat carryout on August 12.
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