Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. USDA report tomorrow. SX is down 7 cents and near 12.72. SMZ is near 337.2. BOZ is near 57.20. CZ is down 4 cents and near 5.06. WZ is down 10 cents and near 6.99. KWZ is down 9 cents and near 6.95. MWZ is down 10 cents and near 8.84. US stocks are lower.
US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. There is new concern that virus spread could slow US/World economy. Trade also watching Fed policy with new inflations worries. Even Bitcoin is lower.
Lack of any new positive news on US gulf logistics offers resistance into USDA Sep report.
Dalian corn is making new lows. Soymeal, soyoil futures are lower. Soybeans, palmoil, rapeoil higher. SX is trading lower and 10 week lows, CZ lower and 5 month lows. Matif rapeseed new contract highs. Canada canola crop only 16.5 mmt, exports 5 mmt vs 10 ly. Canada 60 pct of World total trade.
Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. Top in yields. Brazil dry for corn planting. Argentina fob corn prices higher slowing new export sales.
FSA released their 2021 crop enrollment acres early. All higher than August. Could suggest higher acres.
Balkan and Ukraine corn trying to replace some US corn export demand. US PNW SB basis +250. Egypt paid 6 year highs for wheat. Canada wheat crop 22.9 vs USDA 24.0, Ag Canada 20.8. EU milling quality wheat only 9 mmt of 36 mmt crop. Most doubt USDA will lower EU/Russia exports.
Average trade guess for US corn yield is 175.8 vs USDA 174.6. Crop 14,942 vs USDA 14,750. Average trade guess for US soybean yield is 50.5 vs USDA 50.0 Crop 4,377 vs USDA 4,339.
Trade est US 20/21 corn carryout near 1,169 vs USDA 1,117. 21/22 carryout 1,382 vs 1,242. Trade est US 20/21 soybean carryout near 166 vs USDA 160. 21/22 carryout 190 vs 155. Trade est World 21/22 corn stocks at 286 mt vs 284, soybean 97 vs 96, wheat 279 vs 279.
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