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Oct 17, 2019 | Global Ag News Headlines

USDA Agency Reports

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Grains are higher. CZ is up 3 cents and near 3.94. WZ is up 7 cents and near 5.21. SX is up 7 cents and near 9.35. US stocks are higher US Dollar is lower. Possible Brexit deal and reports China wants a partial deal with important stipulations is helping grains. 

Analyst are already talking about US 2020 planted acres. Some feel that US farmers in 2020 will increase both corn and soybean acres from 2019. Wet spring may have reduced 2019 acres by 20 million. Based on 9.74 SX20 and 4.10 CZ 20, US farmers could plant 96.0-98.0 corn acres in 2020 and 87.5 million soybean acres. One private consultant estimated US 2020 corn acres at 95.3, soybeans 85.3 and all wheat 44.7. Their 2020 corn crop is estimated near 15,650 mil bu, soybeans 4,330 mil bu and all wheat 1,900. 

North American rail traffic fell 5.8% last week amid further steep drops in carloads, data from the Association of American Railroads showed; carload volume for the week ended Oct. 12 on a dozen reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads tumbled 7.6%, while intermodal traffic fell 4.1%, the trade group said. Since May, USDA has dropped World 2019/20 major crop trade from 507 mmt to 496 estimated in October. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast remains dry for the rest of the week; some weather fronts will move in through Tuesday of next week through the region. Temps go from below average to average to above for the weekend and most of next week. 

The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook has average to above average precip and temps for much of the Plains and Midwest. 

The South American weather forecast has rains forecasted done for Argentina over the next to next 10 days. Rains will still generally fall in Brazil. The 6 to 10 day forecast has rains falling in the northern Brazil growing regions. Temps will be below average in Argentina, above in Brazil over the next 5 to 10 days. 

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators still have work to do on a "phase one" trade agreement ahead of a targeted signing by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said. 

Mnuchin told reporters there had been no invitation from China for U.S. officials to travel to Beijing for more talks about the agreement, but he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer were prepared to travel if necessary. He also said the Trump administration has made no decision on how to address planned tariffs on $156 billion of Chinese goods due to take effect on Dec. 15 

China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed that the nation would step up purchases of U.S. agricultural products as the two sides are working on the text of an initial agreement, but it stopped short of giving details on how much it would buy. 

China's government has appealed to Washington to negotiate a quick end to their tariff war but gave no indication what additional steps Beijing might want to see before it carries out what President Donald Trump says is a promise to buy up to $50 billion of American farm goods. A Ministry of Commerce spokesman, Gao Feng, said Thursday achieving "phased results" would restore business confidence and help to stabilize the global economy. 

On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 4,000 SRW wheat, sold 4,000 corn, 5000 soybeans, and 3,000 soymeal and bought 2,000 soyoil.  We estimate Managed Money net short 14,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 117,000 Corn; net long 31,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 34,000 lots of Soymeal, and net long 39,000 Soyoil.

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