Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down 3 cents and near 15.08. SX is down 5 cents and near 13.41. SMN is near 384.5. BON is near 66.45. CN is up 5 cents and near 6.25. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.15. WN is down 5 cents and near 6.51. KWN is down 4 cents and near 6.00. MWN is down 1 cent and near 6.81. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold and copper are higher. US Fed still talking down inflation despite higher gas, food and lumber prices.
US Midwest 2 week weather forecast is for mostly favorable weather. This should help crops. US north plains and PNW forecast is dry. Most of Europe is dry. Central Ukraine is dry.
There are reports of flooding in China and CO2 levels are record high. China SB crush margins negative.
Soyoil as pct of board crush highest level since Dec, 2011. US domestic soymeal supplies increasing. Dalian soyoil prices are higher, soybean and soymeal are lower. Malaysia is on Holiday.
Argentina Parana river levels low. Dock workers start 48 hour strike for vaccinations.
July corn futures dropped on massive technical selling. Chart formation suggest a drop below 6.00. US corn prices now $40 over Black Sea feed wheat prices and $50 dollars over Argentina corn. Central Brazil remains dry. More talk of a corn crop 90-95 mmt.
US corn fob $289. Argentina 238. Traders still debating US final 2021 corn acres. Most near 93-94 vs USDA 91. One guess 96.8. US soybean fob prices near $588, Brazil 550, Argentina 526. US fob meal $438, Argentina 401. US HRW fob price near $273, Baltic 267, Germany 269, Russia 270, French July 270. US KS crop higher than USDA guess. SRW conditions above average. HRS/white crop below ave.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 57,000 Corn; 10,000 Soybeans; 8,000 Soymeal, and; bought 6,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 203,000 Corn; long 119,000 Soybeans; long 27,000 Soymeal, and; net long 72,000 Soyoil.
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