Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up. CU is up. WU is down. KWU is. MWU is unch. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $84. CBOT will be closed Thursday.
SU is near 11.14. BOU is near 46.28. Dalian soyoil and palmoil futures are higher. The Indonesian Trade Minister stated his country will impose safeguard duties on imports. This could include tariffs on Chinese palm oil imports. Matif rapeseed futures are also higher on talk of lower crop. There is also some talk that China could buy US soybean on fear if Trump is elected he could increase China tariffs. US soybean crop is rated 67 G/E, unch from last week and above 50 ly. US soybean exports are down 16 pct vs ly. Some est support now near 11.00 with resistance now near 11.25.
CU is near 4.08. Futures are struggling to rally after Fridays USDA reports. CU was near 4.64 on June 13. NOAA July temp forecast is for above normal. Rainfall is above in Great Lakes. Below normal in south plains. USDA rated US corn crop 67 pct G/E, down 2 pct from last week but above ly 51. Most of US corn crop will start pollinating July 9. US corn exports are up 28 pct vs ly and in line with USDA est. Trade trying to deal with strong domestic basis and lack of farmer selling vs higher than expected June 1 stocks with majority on farm. Some est support now near 3.75 with resistance now near 4.22.
WU is near 5.84. Trade trying to balance tight US SRW supplies vs adequate HRW supplies and higher outlook for HRS crop. US winter wheat harvest is near 54 pct vs 33 ly. Farmer remains good seller. Rest of crop rated 51 pct G/E vs 40 ly. US HRS crop was rated 72 pct G/E vs 48 ly. Some feel nearby Chicago futures support may be near 5.50. Upside post-harvest target could be 6.50. MARS est Russia crop at 82.55 mmt but forecast is hot and dry for spring crops.
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