Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Risk on risk off. US stocks are lower, US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Most commodities are lower. One Fed speaker said rate cut still some ways down the road.
SN is near 12.35. SN-SX spread near +28. Heavy rains continue in S Brazil. Brazil soybean premiums are higher on increase China buying and lack of farmer selling. One analyst est Brazil and Argentina soybean combined crop at 197 mmt down 7 mmt from USDA. US soybean exports are down 18 pct vs ly and USDA 15 pct drop. China has still not bought US new crop soybeans. US soybean export price have narrowed gap vs Brazil. Brazil farmer good seller of soybeans, USDA est soybean plantings are 52 pct a 17 pct increase from last week. Furthest ahead of average is AR and ND. Furthest behind IL, NE and MI. Current conditions suggest the 52 bpa crop.
CN is near 4.56. CN-CZ spread -25. Some feel Mexico drought could increase their corn imports. US corn plantings were 70 pct. Wet US Midwest weather could slow plantings. 10-12 million acres will be planted after May 20. This could increase risk for summer dryness and heat. Increase Russia advance into east Ukraine could raise question about Ukraine corn exports. One analyst est Brazil and Argentina corn combined crop at 197 mmt down 16 mmt vs USDA. Current conditions suggest the 179 bpa crop. US corn exports are up 29 pct vs ly and in line with USDA est. Corn rallied following wheat, good weekly US exports and dry Brazil and Mexico.
WN is near 6.82. WN pushed through 6.75 resistance. Wheat futures were supported by dry US HRW and Russia forecast and wet EU winter wheat crop worries. US wheat exports are 60 mil bu behind USDA. C KS farmer reported hail damage and 100 mph winds lower his crop. USDA est spring wheat plantings at 79 pct. Winter wheat rated 49 G/E vs 31 ly. IL ratings down 7 to 70 pct G/E, KS 33 up 2, WA 43 down 3.
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