Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 16 cents and near 16.25. SX is down 19 cents and near 14.24. SMN is near 442.2. BON is near 66.12. BOK is near 71.55. CN is down 13 cents and near 7.01. CZ is down 8 cents and near 5.84. WN is down 7 cents and near 7.22. KWN is down 11 cents and near 6.79. MWN is down 2 cents and near 7.63. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Copper is lower.
Chinese Ag futures for (September) settled up 5 yuan in soybeans (at U.S. $26.30), down 34 in Corn (at $11.12), down 54 in Soymeal (at $521), up 114 in Soyoil (at 64.30 cents), and up 112 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil market is on holiday until Monday.
Most analyst feel USDA May 2021/22 numbers were near trade guess and may have bought USDA time. Most feel their US 2021/22 corn and soybean demand are too low but they may be hoping for higher US acres to offset higher demand.
US 7 day rains in KS, OK, TX, MO, AR. 6-10 days warm with normal rains. 8-14 warm with normal rain.
USDA est US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,257 vs 1,352, beans 120 vs 120 and wheat 872 vs 852. USDA est US 2021 corn crop near 14,990, soybeans 4,405 and all wheat 1,872. USDA est US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,507, beans 140 and wheat 774
Trade est US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,000, beans 100 and wheat 655. Trade looks for final US 2021/22 corn demand 535 mil bu higher than USDA, soybeans 100 higher.
USDA increased World 2021/22 corn crop 15 mmt. China imports 26 mmt vs some est at 40 mmt. USDA increased SA 2021/22 soybean crop 12.5 mmt. China 20/21 imports 100 mmt vs pace of 123. USDA increased World 2021/22 wheat crop 12 mmt. Total domestic use up 8, trade up 3 mmt.
Weekly US new crop corn export sales est near 700-2,100 mt, soybeans 200-400, wheat 150-310. SN support near 16.00, CN 6.84, WN 7.15 then 7.00. Resistance 16.50, 7.35, 7.40
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 32,000 Corn; bought 10,000 Soybeans; net bought 5,000 Soymeal, and; bought 6,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 346,000 Corn; long 222,000 Soybeans; long 67,000 Soymeal, and; net long 97,000 Soyoil.
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