Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 8 cents and near 14.25. SMN is near 427.2. BON is near 53.09. CN is up 2 cents and near 5.91. WN is up 1 cent and near 6.46. KWN is up 6 cents and near 8.04. MWN is up 7 cents and near 8.19. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. The UN FAO’s food-price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods rose to 127.2 points in April, up 0.6% from March and the first time prices have risen in a year. The index still remains 19.7% below its level in April 2022, when prices had skyrocketed to record levels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Soybean futures are higher on evening up into the weekend. Weekly US soybean and soymeal export sales were lower than expected. Soyoil sales were higher than expected. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. July board soybean crush margins are near 98 and Sep is near 183. Argentina dropped G/E to 2 pct with harvest 36 vs 64 average. Yields are near 17 bpa which suggest a crop of only 18 mmt. China buying Brazil soybean has slowed.
Corn futures are slightly higher. US gulf prices are lower after weekly export sales were record low and negative. For first time ever, China bought 53 mt of South Africa corn. Argentina dropped G/E to 4 pct with harvest 20 vs 30 average. Yields are near 72 bpa which suggest a crop of only 30 mmt. Managed funds are net short corn with early US spring weather mostly favorable. Trade could even up before next weeks USDA report. Some feel report could be negative with lower exports and higher carryout. 2023/24 could also show higher crop and higher carryout. US ethanol margins are higher.
Wheat futures are higher. WN and MWN is up 40-45 cents from mid week low. KWN is up 70 cents. Wet US north plains and dry south plains weather could be supportive. Weekly US export sales were low and fact Russian Grain Board dropped prices to $260 to sell Egypt offers resistance. US Dollar is near 1 year low.
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