Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly higher. SH is up 1 cent and near 12.40. SMH is near 364.6. BOH is near 48.28. CH is up 2 cents and near 4.48. WH is up 6 cents and near 6.02. KWH is up 5 cents and near 6.22. MWH is up 3 cents and near 7.02. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. China announced lower Bank Reserve requirements which adds liquidity to their equity market.
CH is near 4.48. CH-CK spread near -11. CN-CZ spread near -11. US domestic pipeline needs farmer selling. Matif corn futures are lower. Ukraine export prices near $174 vs US $204 and Argentina $207. Managed funds still net short 268,000 contracts with little new news. US corn carryout near 2,263 mil bu offers resistance. Could see US farmer selling closer to 4.60. Demand is a slow buyer near 4.40. South America weather mixed with talk of lower Brazil crop but better rains versus dry Argentina with crop size larger than last year. Dalian corn prices were higher.
SH is near 12.42. SH has rallied 40 cents from recent lows on short covering. Some of this due to questions about Brazil crop size and talk of China stimulus. Argentina remains dry. Farmer selling remains slow. There is talk of an Argentina labor strike which could offset higher 2024 supplies. Brazil soybean harvest is ahead last year with yields variable. Brazil soybean export prices are lower as harvest advances. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil prices were higher. Palmoil lower.
WH is near 6.00. KWH is near 6.20. MWH is near 6.97. US is warming with rains confined in Delta and SE. Canada is dry. North Africa is dry. Russia wheat exports are below pace to reach USDA goal. Either exports will not reach USDA goal or Feb-June exports will need to be record high. Australia futures are lower. EU farmer not selling. Consumer not buying. Canada est 2024 crop near 33.3 mmt vs 31.9 ly.
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