Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are lower. SX is down 10 cents near 13.81. SMZ is near 410.2. BOZ is near 69.84. CZ is down 3 cents and near 6.80. WZ is down 8 cents and near 8.41. KWZ is down 9 cents and near 9.40. MWZ is down 6 cents and near 9.56.
Global weather is mixed with too much rain in Australia, Russia and Ukraine and not enough in US plains and Argentina. Argentina rain forecast was reduced.
November soybean futures found resistance near 13.91. BOZ is back below 70 cents. Malaysian palmoil prices are firming seasonally and supply tends to drop this time of the year. US soybean export commit is up 5 pct from last year. Crude oil prices are lower. There is hope that China demand could increase especially off US PNW. Talk of higher South America 2023 supplies should still offer resistance to SX near 14.00. US Mississippi river level is record low.
Corn futures may be finding resistance near 6.80. Slow demand for US export could limit the upside in futures. Weekly US ethanol production was highest since August while US ethanol stocks are up 9 pct from ly. End users should see 6.40 as Q4 low. US feed market needs corn. Argentina corn 12 pct planted vs 27 ly. France corn harvest 92 pct. Crop could be 50 mmt vs USDA 56. Russia UN ambassador hinted that Ukraine export corridor may not be extended.
Wheat is wheat. Global wheat buyers need wheat. Russia lowest price. Extension, alteration or elimination of Ukraine export deal will be key to prices. Still too much rain in E Australia. Russia talking 25.5 mmt grain export quota despite record wheat crop.? Argentina wheat exports could be down 3 mmt from USDA est and 7 mmt below ly. US plains still dry.
US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar, cocoa and cotton are all lower.
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