Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 3 cents and near 12.46. SMZ is near 319.8. BOZ is near 61.75. CZ is up 1 cent and near 5.31. WZ is up 4 cents and near 7.38. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 7.41. MWZ is unch and near 9.47. OZ is near 6.52. Crude is higher and near 81.32. Stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher.
Key to grain futures this week will be USDA report and any new China buying US Ag goods. Dalian soybean, corn, palmoil, soyoil futures are higher. Soymeal is lower. USDA is closed today for holiday. Tuesday will be USDA crop report, exports and crop progress.
There appears to be some thawing of US and China relations. Could increase China buying US Ag goods.
GSI commodity index rallied to new highs overnight led by rebound in Crude and grains. Crude rallied from a low near 74.96 on Thursday to a high today near 81.32 on supply worries.
SX dropped from a high on June 7 near 14.80 to a recent low near 12.31 on higher supply. Now 12.46. On Tuesday, USDA is expected to raise US 2021/22 soybean carryout from 185 to 300. Soymeal futures have dopped from a high on May 12 near 428 to last weeks low of 318 on low demand. Soyoil futures dropped to 54.18 on Sep 10 on demand worries, now near 61.75 and following energies.
Corn futures rallied from 4.97 on Sep 10 to 5.48 on Sep 30. Now near 5.31 waiting for USDA numbers.
WZ went from 6.18 on July 9 to 7.74 Aug 13 to now 7.38. USDA report should be friendly. KWZ went from 5.90 on July 7 to 7.69 Aug 13. Now 7.41. La Nina 2022 weather could support KC wheat. MWZ went from a low on April 1 near 6.25 to Friday high near 9.47 on lower World milling wheat supply.
On Tuesday, USDA is expected to estimate US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,432, wheat 576.
Heavy weekend rains fell across US north plains. La Nina could offer better HRS weather in 2022.
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