Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grain calls are mixed to lower. CBOT was closed overnight. US stocks are higher. US Dollar made new lows for the move. Crude is near recent high. Labour party won UK election. France election is next.
SU is near 11.17. BOU is near 48.42. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. Question is can rally in soyoil continue and support soybean futures and will China buy US soybeans? China was an active buyer of Brazil soybeans. USDA announced 110 mt US soybean to unknown. Some est support now near 11.00 with resistance now near 11.25. 7 day US Midwest forecast is favorable for the crop. US soybean sales est at 200-600 mt vs 282 last week.
CU is near 4.05. Futures are struggling to rally after USDA report. Most of US corn crop will start pollinating July 9. 7 day US Midwest forecast is favorable for the crop. Trade trying to deal with strong domestic basis and lack of farmer selling vs higher than expected June 1 stocks with majority on farm. Some est support now near 3.75 with resistance near 4.22. Brazil corn futures made new lows. Dalian corn futures continue lower. One crop group lowered Brazil corn crop 3 mmt, Argentina 2 mmt and EU 2.5 mmt. US corn sales are est at 500-900 mt vs 548 last week.
WU is near 5.74. Trade trying to balance tight US SRW supplies vs adequate HRW supplies and higher outlook for HRS crop. Russia forecast is hot and dry for spring crops. Russia continues to drop prices to compete for demand. Est for Russia crop have increased from 80 mmt to 83. There is talk of lower French wheat crop and quality but E Europe crop outlook is for higher crop. US, Canada and Australia crop estimates are increasing.
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