Global Ag News for Sep 22

 TODAY – EIA WEEKLY ENERGY REPORT

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil up 0.62.

Week so far wheat prices are down 14 1/4 in SRW, down 16 3/4 in HRW, down 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/4; Soybeans down 11 3/4; Soymeal down $0.16; Soyoil down 0.69.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 26 in SRW, down 14 1/4 in HRW, down 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 14 1/4; Soybeans down 17; Soymeal down $4.80; Soyoil down 2.84.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 2 yuan ; Soymeal down 28; Soyoil down 88; Palm oil down 84; Corn up 14 — Malasyian Palm is up 124. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 124 ringgit (+2.96%) at 4316 bolstered by strong exports and lower production from Malaysia as well as a rebound in soybean oil prices.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers in Mato Grosso Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday. East: Scattered showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday night-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers east Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above normal west and near normal east Monday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Sept. 21 had funds: net sellers of 6,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 6,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 500 soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 365 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,275 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 21 were: SRW Wheat up 1,823 contracts, HRW Wheat up 323, Corn down 2,194, Soybeans down 218, Soymeal down 1,171, Soyoil down 3,554.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 113,067 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Morocco’s state grains office ONICL received no offers in a tender to import around 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin soft wheat as part of a reduced-tariff import quota tender

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer received the lowest price offer assessed at $421.19 a tonne CIF liner out in an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tonnes of wheat, which closed on Sept. 16
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Pakistan to purchase 500,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Monday was believed to be $383.50 a tonne c&f
• WHEAT FLOUR TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 tonnes of durum wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 49,580 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines is tendering to purchase an estimated 224,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 640,000 tonnes of wheat

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Sept. 17 are based on nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 941k b/d
• Would be the third straight weekly increase in production
• Stockpile avg est. 20.014m bbl vs 20.01m a week ago

China’s Imports From U.S. Hit Halfway Mark of Trade Deal Target

China’s imports from the U.S. hit the halfway mark of the $200 billion worth of additional goods and services it promised to buy under a phase-one trade deal reached last year.

Beijing imported $10.5 billion worth of manufactured, agricultural and energy products from Washington in August, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the country’s customs agency. The target was missed last year amid the pandemic, and China is unlikely to be able to meet that goal by the end of this year.

The Joe Biden administration is separately considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the U.S. economy, in a move to pressure Beijing on trade.

Manitoba Harvest Is 78% Complete as Farmers Turn to Canola, Soy

Harvest in the Canadian agricultural province is well ahead of the five-year average of 69% complete for this time of year, Manitoba government says Tuesday.

• Rapid push in canola and a start of soybean crops has increased harvest completion in Manitoba, weekly crop report says
• Some drought-stressed soybean fields have late regrowth but this is not likely to affect harvest quality
• Spring wheat, barley and oats are 97% harvested, with field peas completely finished
• 84% of canola and 13% of soybeans are harvested

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rose 43% in Season Through Sept. 19

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 reached 6.53m tons as of Sept. 19, versus about 4.58m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• EU barley exports totaled 2.37m tons, compared with 2.01m tons a year earlier
• China is the top market at 602k tons
• EU corn imports reached 3.14m tons, against 3.83m tons a year earlier

Ukraine Sows 1.3m Hectares With Winter Grains, Ministry Says

Ukraine’s farmers have planted winter grains on 17% of the planned area, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday. The total includes 1.2m hectares of winter wheat, or 18% of the planned area.

Fungus Epidemic Is Curbing Output in World’s Biggest Corn Crop

A fungus is plaguing corn fields in the U.S. Midwest, resulting in “significant yield loss,” according to Purdue University.

An epidemic of so-called tar spot disease is showing up on infected plants as raised, black circular spots on leaves and husks. Long periods of leaf wetness in fields allowed the disease to flourish this year, said Darcy Telenko, a field crop pathologist at Purdue in West Lafayette, Indiana.

The fungal issues have hurt U.S. corn yields, reducing harvests in fields in the eastern half of the Midwest. The disease adds to issues like drought and flooding in other areas, which previously sent prices to a near-decade high.

Higher corn prices in the U.S., the world’s biggest producer, means more expensive feed for animals. Such costs can ripple through the world’s supply chains, signaling rising food inflation across the globe.

As of Sunday, the harvest was 10% complete, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

SovEcon Nudges Up Russia Wheat Crop Estimate on Siberia Yields

Russia’s wheat harvest is now seen at 75.6m tons, up from a prior estimate of 75.4m tons, consultant SovEcon said in an emailed note.

• Siberia, a major spring-wheat producer, has reported good yields, up 18% y/y
  • Region’s output is likely to total 10.7m tons, a 12-year high
• Siberia benefited from ample precipitation in the second half of the summer, while other nearby areas suffered from drought

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: U.S. Cattle on Feed Herd Seen Down 1.8% Y/y

Sept. 1 herd seen falling y/y to 11.19m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of ten analysts.

• That would be the fifth straight month that the feedlot herd declined y/y
• August placements seen down 0.9% y/y
• Marketings seen mostly unchanged at 1.89m head

Brazil soymeal exports rebound after sluggish August, Argentina exports slightly above last year

Brazil soymeal exports were slashed in August after rapid deliveries during May-July. Refinitiv trade flows tracked only 1.0 million tons of soymeal exports in August, down 35% from a month ago. However, the latest line-ups report (released on 17 September) indicates that soymeal exports will rebound in September with 0.9 million tons of sailed as of 17 September and 0.8 million tons scheduled to sail. Year-to-date (YTD) exports totaled 11.3 million tons, slightly below last year’s 11.5 million tons. Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea continue to be the top three importers. Besides Asia, Europe is the second largest market of Brazilian soymeal.

Argentina soymeal exports have remained at low levels, but slightly above last year. Refinitiv trade flows tracked 1.3 million tons of soymeal shipments in August, the lowest monthly exports in 2021. This month 0.8 million tons of exports were tracked as of 19 September. YTD exports totaled 13.9 million tons, slightly above last year’s same period of 13.0 million tons.

Customs data shows that Argentina exported 3.88 million tons of soyoil during January-July, compared to 3.35 and 3.23 million tons for 2020 and 2019.

Argentina’s 2020/21 soybean sales hit 30 mln tonnes -ministry

Argentine farmers have sold a total 30 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2020/21 crop, after registering sales over a seven-day period of 650,200 tonnes, the Ministry of Agriculture said on Tuesday.

The sales volume of one of Argentina’s main crops lagged that of the previous season, when by the equivalent point some 31.6 million tonnes of the oilseed had been traded, the ministry said in report with data through Sept. 15.

The 2020/21 soy harvest in Argentina ended in June at 43.1 million tonnes, according to the Buenos Aires grains exchange, compared with 49 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season.

Soy is a major driver of export dollars needed to replenish central bank foreign currency reserves strained by a three-year recession exacerbated last year by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Buenos Aires exchange estimated the coming 2021/22 soy crop, which will start to be sown in October, at 44 million tonnes.

The ministry also said sales of 2020/21 corn had reached 40.4 million tonnes, 3.6 million tonnes more than sales registered at the same time last year.

The exchange estimates 50.5 million tonnes of corn were harvested in the 2020/21 season and expects a record 55 million tonne crop for the 2021/22 season. New season corn planting started in the last week.

Argentine farmers have sold a total of 6.7 million tonnes of wheat for 2021/22, with the harvest starting in November, the government said. The Buenos Aires exchange estimates the new wheat crop at 19.2 million tonnes.

Jan de Nul to Dredge Argentina Soy Waterway While Tender Readied

The Argentine unit of Belgian dredger Jan de Nul, Compania Sudamericana de Dragados, will dredge the Parana River for another 90 working days from September 11, state ports agency AGP said citing an official gazette resolution published on Tuesday.