Global Ag News for Oct 17.23

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA September US soybean crush at 165.456 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush jumped last month to the highest-ever level for September, while end-of-month soyoil stocks thinned to the lowest in nearly nine years, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 165.456 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 2.5% from the 161.453 million bushels processed in August and up 4.6% from the September 2022 crush of 158.109 million bushels.

It was the largest September crush on record, topping the prior mark of 161.491 million bushels set in 2020.

Last month’s crush topped the average trade estimate of 161.683 million bushels in a Reuters survey of nine analysts. Estimates ranged from 153.700 million to 167.000 million bushels, with a median of 163.215 million bushels.

NOPA data showed year-on-year crushing increases in all regions of the country except for the Southeast.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of Sept. 30 fell to 1.108 billion pounds, below all trade estimates and the lowest end-of-month oil stocks since December 2014.

NOPA members’ oil supplies were down 11.4% from the 1.250 billion pounds on hand at the end of August and down 24.1% from stocks totaling 1.459 at the end of September last year.

Analysts had expected a drop in stocks to 1.208 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from six analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.119 billion to 1.300 billion pounds, with a median of 1.200 billion pounds.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $1.90; Soyoil down 0.25.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 1/2 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil up 1.27.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 31 1/2 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 16 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/2; Soybeans up 14 1/2; Soymeal up $10.30; Soyoil down 0.20.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 27.7% in SRW, down 24.9% in HRW, down 22.7% in HRS; Corn is down 27.9%; Soybeans down 15.1%; Soymeal down 18.1%; Soyoil down 12.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans down 39 yuan; Soymeal up 17; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil unchanged; Corn down 20 — Malaysian Palm is down 5. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 5 ringgit (-0.13%) at 3760.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,005 SRW Wheat contracts; 735 Oats; 4 Corn; 220 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 425 Soymeal; 402 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 16 were: SRW Wheat down 4,619 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,490, Corn down 2,323, Soybeans down 7,285, Soymeal up 4,548, Soyoil down 1,396.

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, below normal west and near to above normal east Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers northeast Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday

Western Midwest: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Eastern Midwest: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

The player sheet for Oct. 16 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and  buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN AND SOYMEAL SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 200,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico as well as 183,000 tons of soymeal to the Philippines, all for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest offer in an international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of wheat which closed on Oct. 11 was assessed at $298.19 a metric ton liner out.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,100 metric tons of rice largely from the United States.

TODAY

US Sept. Soy Crush of 165.5M Bushels Is Above Estimates: NOPA

Processing tops the average trader estimate of 160.5m bushels, according to National Oilseed Processors Association data released Monday by Thomson Reuters.

• Figure is also above the year-ago level of 158.1m
• Soybean oil stocks stood at 1.108b lbs at the end of September, below expectations for 1.202b lbs and year-ago level of 1.459b

US Inspected 434k Tons of Corn for Export, 2.012m of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 12, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 434k tons vs 804k the previous wk, 460k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 2,012k tons vs 1,404k the previous wk, 1,927k a yr ago
• Wheat: 355k tons vs 306k the previous wk, 245k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 12

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 12 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 1.36m tons of the 2.01m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Japan led in wheat

Brazil 2023/24 Soybean Planting 17% Done as of Oct. 12: AgRural

Soybean planting is 17% complete as of Oct. 12, against 10% done on prior week and under the 24% mark seen a year early, according to an emailed report from AgRural consulting firm.

• Throughout the week, work lost momentum in several states due to climatic difficulties, especially those caused by high temperatures and irregular rainfall, AgRural said
  • Combination could lead to the replanting of some areas in Mato Grosso state
• 2023/24 summer corn planting in Brazil’s Center-South region is 41% complete, versus 37% a week earlier and 46% a year before

Brazil 2023/24 Summer Corn Planting 58.5% Done Oct. 13: Safras

Comapres with 52.6% last year, and a five-year average of 49.3%, according to a report from Safras & Mercado consulting firm.

• Seeding is 89.1% complete in Rio Grande do Sul, 89.9% in Parana, 35.8% in Sao Paulo and 18% in Mato Grosso do Sul

China’s Corn Prices Heading for Two-Year Low on Sluggish Demand

China’s corn prices are heading for the weakest close in two years as harvesting in the world’s second-largest producer coincides with a protracted lull in demand from both the processing and animal feed sectors.

The most active corn futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell as much as 1% to 2,503 yuan ($342) a ton, before trading at 2,507 yuan by the midday break.

Increasing losses in the pig farming industry and declining profits from poultry breeding have stunted growth in feed demand. Operating rates at corn deep processing companies have fallen too, brokerage Holly Futures said in a report.

China’s pig farming margins slipped into negative territory at the end of September, a time when pork demand usually rises just before the Golden Week holiday. Instead, a weak economy hurt consumption, pressuring prices.

Chicken farmers are also struggling because of large inventories and poor demand, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.

Feed demand from the livestock industry may pick up later in the fourth quarter during the traditional peak demand season for meat. Uncertainties surrounding China’s slowing economy, however, continue to cast a shadow on consumption.

Spot corn prices in Dalian were around the lowest level since June.

Ukraine 2024 winter grain sowing 65.2% complete at 3.3 mln ha – ministry

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry said on Monday that farmers had sown around 3.3 million hectares of winter grain crops as of Oct. 16, or 65.2% of the expected area.

The area included 3.02 million hectares of winter wheat, or 69.3% of the expected area, the ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine is a traditional grower of winter wheat, which accounts for at least 95% of its overall wheat output.

Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said this month that Ukraine was likely to sow less winter wheat than it initially expected for the 2024 harvest due to the prolonged absence of rain across most regions.

Solsky gave no exact figure for the acreage that could be sown this year while the ministry has still expected a sowing area of 4.36 million hectares.

The ministry also said farmers had sown 260,000 hectares of winter barley and 1.12 million hectares of winter rapeseed.

Producers plan to sow 692,100 hectares of winter barley and 1.2 million hectares of winter rapeseed this year.

Farmers sowed 4.46 million hectares of winter wheat, 612,200 hectares of winter barley and 1.376 million hectares of winter rapeseed for the 2023 harvest.

Ukraine is expected to harvest 79 million tons of grain and oilseed in 2023, with a 2023/24 exportable surplus total of about 50 million tons.

Ukraine Expects Almost $700m Aid From US for Export Logistics

Ukraine will use funds from the US to upgrade export logistics and transport, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov says on Facebook late Monday.

• Border checkpoints with neighbors, ports and railways need to be modernized
• Kubrakov met US envoy for Ukraine recovery, Penny Pritzker, in Kyiv
• Kubrakov, Pritzker discussed investments in Ukraine’s energy sector, municipal infrastructure, humanitarian demining

WHEAT/CEPEA: Harvest begins to step up in southern BR, but rains concern growers

Cepea, 16 – Brazilian agents have been focused on crop activities and monitoring the weather. The harvest is beginning to step up in the major wheat-producing states (Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná), but rains are still concerning growers.

Official estimates released by Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) last week pointed to lower productivity and output in Brazil. The crop currently being harvested is forecast to total 10.46 million tons, 3.3% lower than that estimated in September and 0.9% below the record set last season. The area allocated to wheat crops in Brazil is estimated to be 12.1% larger than that last season, at 3.46 million hectares, however, crops’ productivity is forecast at 3.02 tons/hectare, 3.6% lower than that estimated in September and 11.6% below that from 2022 (3.42 tons/hectare), according to Conab.

As for imports, Conab kept estimates stable, at five million tons (between August/23 and July/24). Wheat availability in Brazil is expected to be 2.2% lower than that reported in September, estimated at 16.2 million tons between Aug/23 and Jul/24, 2.6% higher than that last season.

Consumption is estimated by Conab to total 12.64 million tons, 2% higher than that estimated for the previous crop (Aug/22 – Jul/23). Exports estimates were kept at 2.6 million tons. Thus, by July/24, ending stocks would total 958.9 thousand tons, lower than that previously estimated but 29.5% higher than that last season.

BRAZILIAN CROPS – According to data from Conab, by October 7th, the wheat harvest had ended in Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Bahia States. In Minas Gerais, 99.6% had been harvested; in São Paulo, 75%; in Paraná, 69%; in Santa Catarina, 6%; and in Rio Grande do Sul, 3%.

Cepea surveys show that wheat prices have reacted in the wholesale market, after fading for many days. Between October 6-13, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 3.5% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.39% in Santa Catarina, but rose 0.37% in Paraná. On the other hand, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 6.14% in São Paulo, 2.52% in PR and 1.85% in Rio Grande do Sul, but remained stable in Santa Catarina. In the same period, the US dollar dropped 1.3% against the Real, closing at BRL 5.092 on Friday, 13th.

China approves herbicide-tolerant GM canola product for import

China’s agriculture ministry said on Tuesday it has approved a genetically modified herbicide-tolerant canola product for import for a five-year period.

The product is a BASF DE herbicide-tolerant canola with the event name MS11, the ministry said in a notice on its website.

The crop has been cleared for import for processing in China from Sept. 28.

China allows the import of GM crops used in animal feed but trade partners say the process is not always based on science and is often driven by politics.

Beijing has a cautious approach to GM technology although President Xi Jinping has increasingly supported use of the technology that he has said is crucial for improving food security.

Amazon River falls to lowest in over a century amid Brazil drought

The Amazon River fell to its lowest level in over a century on Monday at the heart of the Brazilian rainforest as a record drought upends the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and damages the jungle ecosystem.

Rapidly drying tributaries to the mighty Amazon have left boats stranded, cutting off food and water supplies to remote villages, while high water temperatures are suspected of killing more than 100 endangered river dolphins.

The port of Manaus, the region’s most populous city, at the meeting of the Rio Negro and the Amazon River, recorded 13.59 meters (44.6 ft) of water on Monday compared to 17.60 a year ago, according to its website. That is the lowest level since records began in 1902, passing a previous all-time low set in 2010.

After months without rain, rainforest villager Pedro Mendonca was relieved when a Brazilian NGO delivered supplies to his riverside community near Manaus late last week.

“We have gone three months without rain here in our community,” said Mendonca, who lives in Santa Helena do Ingles, west of Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state. “It is much hotter than past droughts.”

Some areas of the Amazon have seen the least rain from July to September since 1980, according to the Brazilian government disaster alert center, Cemaden.

Brazil’s Science Ministry blames the drought on this year’s onset of the El Nino climate phenomenon, which is driving extreme weather patterns globally. In a statement earlier this month, the ministry said it expects the drought will last until at least December, when El Nino’s effects are forecast to peak.

The drought has affected 481,000 people as of Monday, according to the civil defense agency in the state of Amazonas, where Manaus is located.

Late last week, workers from Brazilian NGO Fundacao Amazonia Sustentavel (FAS) fanned out across the parched region near Manaus to deliver food and supplies to vulnerable villages. The drought has threatened their access to food, drinking water and medicines, which are usually transported by river.

Nelson Mendonca, a community leader in Santa Helena do Ingles, said some areas are still reachable by canoe, but many boats have not been able to bring supplies along the river, so most goods are arriving by tractors or on foot.

“It’s not very good for us, because we’re practically isolated,” he said.

Luciana Valentin, who also lives in Santa Helena do Ingles, said she is concerned about the cleanliness of the local water supply after the drought reduced water levels.

“Our children are getting diarrhea, vomiting, and often having fever because of the water,” she said.

Indonesia’s Bulog to import 500,000 T corn in 2023, half from Latin America – official

Indonesia’s state food procurement agency Bulog has been assigned to import 500,000 metric tons of corn for animal feed in the remainder of this year, of which half would come from Latin American countries, a company official said on Tuesday.

Awaludin Iqbal, Bulog’s secretary told Reuters those countries would include Brazil and Argentina, with details of the procurement to be handled by the feed businesses.

Indonesia had previously targeted importation of 1.34 million metric tons of corn by the end of 2023, according to data presented by the national food agency in parliament.

Chinese State-Owned Agricultural Firm Pledge Innovation to Ensure Steady Grain Supply

Chinese state-owned agricultural businesses such as COFCO pledged to innovate and integrate across the industry chain to ensure a steady grain supply for the country, Xinhua News Agency reported Monday.

COFCO will develop environment-friendly feed ingredients including plant and cell-based protein, microbial protein, and insect protein, to reduce the need for importation, the report said.

The country’s demand for feed ingredients and oil crops has risen due to increasing consumption of oil, sugar, meat, eggs and milk, the report said, citing COFCO President Luan Richeng. China has witnessed a significant surge in the consumption of corn and soybeans over the last 20 years.

China customs lifts foot and mouth disease ban on 22 Russian regions

China on Monday said it has lifted a ban on foot and mouth disease for sheep, cattle and pigs on 22 Russian regions.

A notice by the Customs Department and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said the livestock and their products that comply with Chinese laws are allowed to enter the country.

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.