Global Ag News for May 29.24

TOP HEADLINES

US Has Worst Bird Flu Outbreak in Two Years at Iowa Egg Farm

Deadly bird flu was detected in an egg-laying chicken flock in Iowa, affecting 4.2 million birds in the biggest US outbreak since 2022.

The detection is the first since December in Iowa, which is the top US egg producer with nearly 12% of the country’s layer hens, according to US Department of Agriculture data. The findings come as the virus has been infecting dairy cows across the US.

The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship said the site is in Sioux County, according to a statement Tuesday.

It’s the worst outbreak since more than 5 million birds were affected at a farm in Iowa’s Osceola County in March 2022, when the virus was first spreading in the country. Prices for eggs surged to a record as tens of millions of birds were killed to slow the spread.

The virus now has moved to dairy cattle as well, prompting dairy farmers to seek compensation for milk losses.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 0.19.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 21 1/2; Soymeal down $9.80; Soyoil up 0.71.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 96 1/4 in SRW, up 92 1/2 in HRW, up 54 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 16 1/4; Soybeans up 64 3/4; Soymeal up $25.10; Soyoil up 2.70.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 10.2% in SRW, up 12.2% in HRW, up 3.8% in HRS; Corn is down 2.1%; Soybeans down 5.2%; Soymeal down 2.4%; Soyoil down 4.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans up 9 yuan; Soymeal down 86; Soyoil up 42; Palm oil up 88; Corn down 13 — Malaysian Palm is up 73. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 73 ringgit (+1.84%) at 4033.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 85 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 28 were: SRW Wheat up 6,245 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,437, Corn up 14,147, Soybeans down 3,149, Soymeal up 3,645, Soyoil up 4,061.

 

Northern Plains: A system will move through Wednesday and Thursday with some isolated showers continuing afterward into next week. Any heavy amounts are likely to be very isolated, with more light to moderate rainfall across the region, which should leave enough holes for producers to continue planting while giving new seedlings some rainfall to continue growing.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will push into the region on Wednesday and slowly pivot around the area through the weekend and even lasting into next week. Every day should feature precipitation somewhere in the region through at least June 3, which is a good prospect for getting some precipitation into drier parts of the region but could cause damage or flooding in some others.

Midwest: An upper-level trough will keep showers and thunderstorms going across the far east on Wednesday. After a break, another system will approach the west on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms that will continue to spread eastward through the weekend. A front will be left behind in the region and continue showers early next week as well. Short breaks between storm systems and rainfall have made it difficult for those yet to plant to finish up and flooding has been an issue in many areas, especially in the southwest. The recurrence of widespread rainfall by late this week will continue that threat for late planting and some flooded areas may not be replanted.

Delta: A front remains in the region and may activate and produce some showers for southern areas through Thursday. Additional fronts and systems will be close by starting Friday and lasting through next week, which at least gives northern areas more chances for rain. Southern areas may find that as well. Although some flooding potential is possible, the rain is overall favorable for developing crops.

Canadian Prairies: Asystem will slowly move through the region Wednesday through Friday and the storm track will try to move farther north again for this weekend and next week, which brings more opportunity for rain through the region. Temperatures should fluctuate between systems, but overall do not look particularly cold, which should limit potential for frosts.

Brazil: Dry weather follows for this week, which will help flooded areas in the south to recover a bit, though that will take a lot of time.

Argentina: A front will move through this weekend with only limited showers. Dryness in recent weeks is also unfavorable for winter wheat, which could use some rain for establishment. The dryness continues to favor corn and soybean harvest.

 

The player sheet for 5/28 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 7,000 corn, buyers of 8,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 215,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, including 165,000 tons for shipment in the 2023/24 marketing year and 50,000 tons for 2024/25.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association’s (KFA) Busan section in South Korea purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from either South America or South Africa in a private deal late on Tuesday
• FAILED CORN TENDER: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender to buy up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from South America or South Africa only, traders said. Prices offered were regarded as too high
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 96,850 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.077m Tons of Corn for Export, 212k of Soybeans

In week ending May 23, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 399k tons vs 228k the previous wk, 391k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,077k tons vs 1,226k the previous wk, 1,346k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 212k tons vs 192k the previous wk, 257k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: May 23

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending May 23 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 75k tons of the 212k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat
• The following are in thousands of metric tons, only the top five countries are listed:

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.74 Million Tns In May Versus 13.83 Million Tns Forecast In Previous Week – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.74 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 13.83 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.08 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 2.29 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 520,064 TNS IN MAY VERSUS UP TO 626,302 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 24,150 TNS IN MAY VERSUS 24,150 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

SovEcon Cuts Russian Wheat Crop Forecast to 82.1m Tons on Frost

SovEcon lowered its estimate for Russia’s wheat harvest this year to 82.1m tons, from a previous forecast of 85.7m tons, it said in a statement.

• Cites greater-than-expected damage to winter wheat crops after May frosts
• “Current weather conditions remain challenging for the new crop,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon. “Many critical winter wheat regions, including Rostov, the leading wheat grower, are still too dry”

 

Ukraine Weather Center Sees Winter Wheat Harvest of 18m Tons

Ukrainian weather center sees 2024 winter wheat harvest forecast of no less than 18m tons based on observation of test fields across the country.

• Winter wheat has good potential as it received enough moisture in April, at a critical growth stage, Tetiana Adamenko, head of agriculture department at the national Hydrometeorology Center, says by phone
• NOTE: Ukraine planted winter wheat across 4.36m hectare for 2024 harvest, up 3.8% y/y
  • Spring wheat was planted across 252,500 hectare for 2024 harvest, up 7% y/y
• NOTE: Ukrainian Grain Association sees 2024 total wheat harvest of 19.1m tons
• Soil moisture remains sufficient because of lower-than-usual temperatures up until May 22-23: Adamenko
• Rains are expected soon in most of Ukraine

 

Argentina on track to start corn exports to China in July – grains chamber head

Argentina is on track to start long-awaited corn shipments to China from July, the country’s grain export chamber told Reuters on Tuesday, which would be a major boost for the South American nation, the world’s no. 3 supplier of the grain.

“Yesterday they confirmed to us that all the conditions are in place to move forward with shipments to China starting in July,” said Gustavo Idigoras, the head of the CIARA-CEC chamber, the first time confirming plans were on track to start exports.

Argentina’s government previously said it was aiming to start corn exports to China by July, but that there were pending administrative procedures to obtain import licenses.

“The Chinese market is growing with 20 million tons of imports per year. Brazil is the first supplier. So Argentina has all the conditions to be a strong and reliable supplier of corn for animal feed,” Idigoras said.

The two countries struck an initial agreement last year to open up exports of Argentine corn to China, but official data show that no shipments of cereal have been made to Chinese ports since it was signed, with outstanding issues to resolve.

The two countries had over a decade ago tried to open up the trade of Argentine corn, most of which is genetically modified. A small amount was allowed into China in 2012 as a test, but Beijing’s concerns around GMO held things back. Now that hold-up appears to have eased.

Earlier on Tuesday, Argentina’s government said that China had authorized for import two varieties of herbicide tolerant GMO corn that are grown in the country, easing the passage for exports and helping Chinese importers to get permits.

Argentine farmers are in the initial stages of harvesting corn for the 2023/24 season, whose production is estimated at 47.5 million tons by the major Rosario grains exchange.

 

South Africa 2023-24 Total Corn Crop Estimate Decreases by 0.6%

Total production estimate for 2023-24 is cut to 13.31 million tons, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee says in an emailed report about its fourth production forecast for the season.

• White corn crop now seen at 6.34 million tons, 1% lower than the previous forecast
• Yellow corn crop seen at 6.97 million tons, a decrease of 0.3%
• Estimated corn crop is 19%, or 3.12 million tons, smaller than the 2022-23 crop
• The three main corn-producing areas, namely the Free State, Mpumalanga and North West provinces, are expected to produce 79% of the 2024 crop

 

India Temperature Surpasses 50C as Brutal Heat Waves Grip Nation

• Mercury reaches 50.5C at Churu in northwestern Rajasthan state
• Hotter weather conditions seen prevailing for several days

The maximum temperature in India crossed 50C (122F) for the first time this summer, just a whisker away from an all-time high, as deadly heat waves in several states continue to pose severe health risks for millions.

The mercury soared to 50.5C on Tuesday in Churu, a city in the northwestern state of Rajasthan, according to the India Meteorological Department. The record for the country is 51C, set in May 2016 at Phalodi in the same region.

Extreme weather events in India have been exacerbated by climate change, with the frequency and intensity of floods, droughts and cyclones rising year after year. The South Asian nation is not alone in facing the vagaries of nature. The world posted an 11th month of record-breaking heat in April, with warmer conditions engulfing Asia and a hotter-than-usual summer predicted in Europe. A sizzling season poses risks for lives, strains power grids and wilts crops.

 

Monsoon Onset Likely Over India’s Kerala in Next 24 Hours: IMD

The conditions continue to become favorable for the monsoon’s onset over the southern state of Kerala during the next 24 hours, according to the India Meteorological Department.

• The monsoon will also advance to some parts of northeastern states, the weather office said in a statement
• Heat wave conditions, which are prevailing over northwest and central regions, are likely to gradually reduce from Thursday

 

FDA Approves Feed Product to Cut Dairy Cow Methane Emissions

• Elanco’s Bovaer can cut dairy cattle emissions by 30%
• Supplement revenue in US seen at more than $200 million

Elanco Animal Health Inc. received approval from the US Food and Drug Administration for a feed supplement that reduces methane emissions in dairy cattle by 30%, on average.

The ingredient, Bovaer, is added to cattle feed and works by suppressing a digestive enzyme that generates methane, according to the Greenfield, Indiana-based company. The FDA approval is the first for a product of its kind, and the company expects it to generate more than $200 million of revenue in the US market.

“There’s a perception that, ‘Oh, cows are bad for the environment.’ That’s not the case,” Chief Executive Officer Jeff Simmons said in an interview. “What comes with this announcement is that the dairy industry in the US can have a significant impact, positively, on the environment in the short term, in the next five years, by reducing methane.”

 

Canada’s Nutrien idles three Brazil fertilizer blenders indefinitely

Nutrien, the world’s largest producer of potash, said on Tuesday that it is indefinitely halting three fertilizer-blending facilities in Brazil as part of a broader reorganization to weather tough market conditions.

Nutrien confirmed the move, which had been announced only to employees, in a statement to Reuters, adding that it was part of a strategy to prioritize efficiency and profitability. The company said that it will rely on partners and on its two other blenders in Brazil to supply fertilizer to local customers.

“This decision allows Nutrien to reactivate (the plants) in the future when there is a more stable market scenario,” the statement said.

Two of the plants are located in Goias state and the other is a new blender in Minas Gerais that has not yet started operations.

The move to idle plants in Brazil follows a decision to put assets in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay up for sale, part of a regional turnaround first reported by Reuters.

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.