Global Ag News for June 28.24

TOP HEADLINES

Argentine oilseed union strikes as labor reform up for vote

Argentine oilseed crushers workers union SOEA has kicked off a strike to protest a proposed labor reform awaiting a vote in the lower house of Congress, a union leader said on Thursday.

The proposals are part of a major package of reforms pushed by libertarian President Javier Milei.

“We started the strike, but this time we did it without issuing a statement,” SOEA’s union leader Daniel Succi told Reuters. The union canceled a prior strike earlier this month under pressure from the government.

The CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grains exporters questioned the legality of what it called an “unplanned” strike.

The strike is “totally foreign to the industry and is politically motivated,” the chamber said on social media network X.

The SOEA operates in the port towns north of Rosario, Argentina’s main agricultural exports hub. The country is one of the largest international exporters of soybean oil and soybean flour.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil up 0.42.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 8 1/2 in SRW, up 10 3/4 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/4; Soybeans down 6 1/2; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil down 0.40.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 115 1/4 in SRW, down 125 1/2 in HRW, down 127 in HRS; Corn is down 31; Soybeans down 71; Soymeal down $19.50; Soyoil down 2.08.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.2% in SRW, down 7.7% in HRW, down 15.7% in HRS; Corn is down 11.5%; Soybeans down 10.6%; Soymeal down 6.5%; Soyoil down 8.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 26 yuan; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil up 32; Palm oil up 44; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 31.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 31 ringgit (+0.80%) at 3921.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 130 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 27 were: SRW Wheat down 2,027 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,634, Corn down 5,123, Soybeans down 11,034, Soymeal down 6,716, Soyoil down 339.

 

Northern Plains: Flooding continues to be an issue for southeastern South Dakota and any new rain will make it worse. Unfortunately, there will be several systems to move through the region through next week that will bring scattered showers. One will move through Thursday and Friday and another one moves through early next week. One more may come through at the end of next week. Temperatures will turn much colder for the weekend with a slight risk of frost in some areas where skies clear and winds are calm. Though temperatures will moderate next week, they will still be cooler than normal, and another shot of colder air may move through later next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Some areas in the east got some needed rain on Wednesday. Another front will move through Thursday through the weekend with more and some cooler air, especially north. Another system does something similar early-to-mid next week. The active storm track is favoring northern areas with better chances for widespread rain. Heat will occur south of the fronts coming through and be stressful to crops when it exists, but those across the north are seeing better precipitation and mostly good conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

Midwest: Flooding continues to be an issue along the Minnesota-Iowa border through southern Wisconsin and parts of Missouri from rainfall over the last week. A front that moved through over the last couple of days has brought widespread and needed rainfall to southern and eastern areas that had been very hot and dry prior to it. Two more fronts will move through the region going through next week, one Friday through the weekend and another early-to-mid next week, providing some better shower chances across most of the region. The rain should help with flash drought conditions that had developed in some areas, though a lot of this rain will not be counted on today’s Drought Monitor. The pattern stays active well into July, a favorable look to the forecast for most areas. But northwestern areas would like to see a break and dry conditions but will have to deal with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through, sometimes with heavy rain that may exacerbate flooding and poor crop conditions.

Delta: A front that moved through on Wednesday brought widespread showers and thunderstorms and a slight drop in temperatures, though not all areas saw needed rainfall. The break from the heat is brief, with temperatures rising again Friday into the weekend. Models are forecasting two fronts to drift into the region next week, but not with heavy precipitation, which may be stressful with the higher temperatures.

Canadian Prairies: Several storm systems will move through the region through next week with scattered showers that will keep soil moisture high and continue potential flood threats in some areas, especially in the north and east with a system Thursday and Friday. Severe weather will also be possible. Temperatures will trend colder behind today’s system. Some limited frost will be possible, but unlikely to be widespread. Temperatures will moderate next week, but still be cooler than normal. We may see another burst of cold air later next week as well. Cooler temperatures are not helpful for crop development that is behind due to wetness and previous cold air.

Brazil: Some rain got into southern safrinha corn areas with a front this week, but the lack of heavy rain will allow harvest to continue. Another front will move in Friday through the weekend with more scattered showers but also a burst of colder air. Though some frosts will be possible, it will be unlikely to have an effect on either mature corn or germinating winter wheat. Heavy rain from last month and last week continue to limit wheat planting, however.

Argentina: Rainfall deficits continue to build up and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment. A front later this week will bring some spotty showers, but also a burst of colder temperatures that will produce some frosts for a couple of days. Another likely does the same next week.

 

The player sheet for 6/27 had funds: net buyers of 7,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 7,000 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to undisclosed destinations for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia issued a tender to buy 595,000 metric tons of wheat for arrival from September through December, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is June 28, a GFSA statement said. Results are expected on Monday, July 1, European traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending June 20, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Unknown Buyers with 90k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 566k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Unknown Buyers with 148k tons

 

French Barley, Durum Harvest Starts Far Behind Last Year’s Pace

Only 1% of France’s winter barley crop has been harvested up to June 24, according to FranceAgriMer data released Friday.

• That’s well behind the 25% seen the same time last year, and below the five-year average
• The durum wheat harvest was also at 1%, down from 4% the year before

 

India Introduces Limited Import Quotas To Address Food Inflation

The Indian government has announced a series of measures to allow limited imports of key agricultural commodities under tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), aiming to curb rising food inflation.

The decision, made public on Wednesday, permits the import of specific quantities of corn, crude sunflower oil, refined rapeseed oil, and milk powder at reduced or zero duty rates.

Under the new policy, India will allow imports of 500,000 metric tons of corn, 150,000 metric tons of sunflower oil or safflower oil, 150,000 metric tons of refined rapeseed oil, and 10,000 metric tons of milk powder.

This move comes as food inflation in India has persisted at approximately 8 per cent year-on-year since November 2023, impacting the nation’s ability to reduce interest rates.

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates June 27: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• Corn and soybean production estimates maintained
• Wheat planting advanced to 81% complete from 65.5%

 

Canada Wheat Area at 26.6M Acres, Canola at 22M: StatsCan

Canadian wheat planting was lower than previously expected, according to Statistics Canada’s principal field crop areas report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 27.2m acres
• Canola planting at 22m acres, 0.61m acres above the previous est.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Hog and Pig Inventory Rose 1.3% Y/y; Est. +1.2%

The hog herd totaled 74.486m head on June 1, according to the USDA report released Thursday on its website.

• Sows retained for breeding totaled 6.008m head, a 3.2% decline from year ago
• Hogs for slaughter rose 1.7% y/y to 68.479m head
• Pig crop rose to 34.021m from 33.414m last year
• Pigs per litter rose to 11.56 from 11.36 last year

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 419k tons in the week ending June 22 from 530k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn little changed from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 56% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $8.54 per short ton, a decline of $0.12 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending June 25: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending June 25, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn area experiencing moderate to intense drought rose to 6% vs 3% in the previous week
• Soybean area in drought increased by 5 percentage point to 7%

 

Brazil’s Crop Preparations Attempt to Overcome Weakening Real

Planting preparations for 2024 have started in Brazil amid increased input prices and a weakening real. Though the appetite for supplies may be muted, better exports look set to raise soybean sales. If this generates more cash and local barter deals remain steady, negotiations could accelerate for agriculture retailers and input suppliers

 

 

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