Written Commentary
TOP HEADLINES
India allows imports of corn, vegetable oils at concessional duty
India on Wednesday allowed limited imports of corn, milk powder, crude sunflower oil and refined rapeseed oil at concessional duty, the government said in a notification seen by Reuters.
The world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils will allow imports of 150,000 metric tons each of sunflower oil or safflower oil and refined rapeseed oil in the current marketing year, the notification said.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/4 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, up 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil up 0.43.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 19; Soybeans down 11; Soymeal down $3.70; Soyoil down 0.30.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 134 3/4 in SRW, down 138 1/4 in HRW, down 143 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 31 1/4; Soybeans down 75 3/4; Soymeal down $21.70; Soyoil down 1.98.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.7% in SRW, down 10.3% in HRW, down 17.3% in HRS; Corn is down 11.4%; Soybeans down 9.8%; Soymeal down 6.7%; Soyoil down 8.2%.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 21 yuan; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil up 46; Palm oil up 36; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 18.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 18 ringgit (+0.46%) at 3897.
There were changes in registrations (-88 Soybeans). Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 130 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 26 were: SRW Wheat up 4,503 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,647, Corn down 1,450, Soybeans down 5,358, Soymeal down 5,809, Soyoil down 4,448.
Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.
Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.
Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday. East: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.
Canadian Prairies: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.
The player sheet for 6/26 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought about 130,000 to 150,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender on Wednesday which sought limited shipment to two ports only.
- NO PURCHASE IN FEED BARLEY TENDER, NEW TENDER ISSUED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
TODAY
DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.8% to 23.423M Bbl
According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 23.683 mln bbl
- Plant production at 1.043m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.065m
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending June 20.
- Corn est. range 500k – 1,200k tons, with avg of 735k
- Soybean est. range 300k – 700k tons, with avg of 505k
Ukraine’s Grain Exports Advance 3.9% So Far This Season
Export of grains from Ukraine advanced by 3.9% so far in season that started on July 1 to 50.3m tons, Agriculture Ministry data show.
The total includes:
- 29m tons of corn, up 0.8% y/y
- 18.3m tons of wheat, up nearly 10% y/y
- 2.48m tons of barley, down 7.7% y/y
Canada Crushed 920K Tons of Canola in May: StatsCan
Canola processing rose 19.5% in May from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Wednesday on agency’s website.
- Oil production totaled 394k tons, and meal output at 534k tons
- Aug.-May crushings up 11.7% from year ago to 9.251m tons
Argentina’s BCRA Not to Renew Notice on Soybean Financing Rate
Argentina’s central bank BCRA will not renew a notice that imposes a minimum bank financing rate that producers can access when they hold a soybean stock of over 5% of their output.
- BCRA said in a statement on Wednesday that the regulation, enacted in 2022, is due on June 30
- “This decision is a further step in the BCRA’s efforts to normalize the functioning of the financial system and promote domestic credit to the private productive sector:” central bank
Brazil Phosphates Strengthen as Global Supply Tightens
Fertilizer prices in Brazil were steady for potash, up for phosphates and down for urea and ammonium sulfate, with sellers focused primarily on demand for soybean application. Tight supply boosted phosphate prices, while urea and ammonium sulfate slipped slightly after earlier gains.
USDA to Roll Out More Emergency Bird Flu Funding: Politico
US Agriculture Department is set to launch a new tranche of federal funding this week to help farmers with the economic toll of the bird flu outbreak spreading through US dairy herds, Politico reports, citing two unidentified people familiar with the plans.
- New guidance will pay farmers for only about a month of milk losses from cows that are removed from milking production over a 134-day period
- Won’t reimburse farmers for any animal deaths due to the virus
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