Global Ag News for July 2.24

TOP HEADLINES

Argus Sees Ukraine Wheat Crop at 20.3M Tons in 2024-25 Season

Argus sees Ukraine’s total wheat production at 20.3m tons in the 2024-25 season that started on Monday, due to lower yields and harvested areas.

• That’s up from an earlier forecast but still a 2.2m tons drop y/y
• Wheat yields in Ukraine seen at 4.44 ton per hectare in 2024-25, down from record of 4.79 t/ ha the year before
  • yields remains above the five-year average
• Lower productions is a result of “later-than-usual autumn planting, wide temperature variations in April and unseasonal frost in May. June’s dry, hot conditions in the east and south of the country are also pressuring the national yield”: Argus

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 1/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 0.43.

For the week & month so far wheat prices are up 11 1/4 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 19 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 13 1/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil up 2.39.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.4% in SRW, down 6.1% in HRW, down 13.2% in HRS; Corn is down 15.5%; Soybeans down 9.5%; Soymeal down 4.6%; Soyoil down 4.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 4 yuan; Soymeal up 11; Soyoil up 74; Palm oil up 154; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is up 108.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 108 ringgit (+2.71%) at 4087.

There were changes in registrations (-144 SRW Wheat, -2 Oats, -13 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,335 SRW Wheat contracts; 37 Oats; 747 Corn; 130 Soybeans; 2,576 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 1 were: SRW Wheat down 2,268 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,598, Corn down 708, Soybeans up 12,687, Soymeal up 3,024, Soyoil down 7,534.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday. East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal west and near to above normal east Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 7/1 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 8,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA), on Monday purchased around 235,000 metric tons of hard wheat in an international tender, the agency said. The purchase was considerably below the 595,000 tons sought in the tender. Origins offered were the European Union, Black Sea region, North America, South America and Australia, with the sellers having the option of selecting the origin supplied, GFSA governor Ahmad Al-Fares said in a statement.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 129,660 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Wednesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on June 26.

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 67% G/E, Soybeans 67%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 67% G/E vs 69% last week, and 51% a year ago
• Soybeans 67% G/E vs 67% last week, and 50% a year ago
• Soybeans emerged 95% vs 90% last week, and 97% a year ago
• Spring wheat 72% G/E vs 71% last week, and 48% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 54% vs 40% last week, and 33% a year ago
• Winter wheat 51% G/E vs 52% last week, and 40% a year ago
• Cotton 50% G/E vs 56% last week, and 48% a year ago
• Cotton planted 97% vs 94% last week, and 98% a year ago
• Sorghum 58% G/E vs 61% last week, and 55% a year ago
• Sorghum planted 96% vs 90% last week, and 90% a year ago

 

 

TODAY

US Soybean Crushings at 192M Bushels in May: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 1.4% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 1.9% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 8.4% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 453.7M Bu in May

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 3.3% higher than in May 2023
• DDGS production rose to 2.003m tons

 

US Inspected 820k Tons of Corn for Export, 303k of Soybeans

In week ending June 27, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 820k tons vs 1,153k the previous wk, 676k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 303k tons vs 350k the previous wk, 264k a yr ago
• Wheat: 310k tons vs 344k the previous wk, 342k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: June 27

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending June 27 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Egypt-bound shipments made up 111k tons of the 303k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Indonesia led in wheat

 

USDA attaché trims Brazil 2023/24 soy crop estimate to 150 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Brasilia:

“Post revises down its Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 production estimates to 150 million metric tons (MMT) due to the recent floods in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul and lower yields across several states. Amidst lower soybean output and solid gross crushing margins, Post reduces export estimates to 94 MMT and increases crush volumes to 55.1 MMT. Different local forecasting agencies have revised up Brazil’s MY 2023/24 soybean area based on new geoprocessing data and satellite imagery. Similarly, Post revises up its current MY area estimates to 45.8 million ha (hectares). For out-year, Post revises up area and production forecasts to 46.3 million ha and 160 MMT respectively, with national yields at 3,456 kg/ha.”

 

StoneX Trims Brazil Corn Outlook to 121.2M Tons on Drier Weather

Estimate for Brazil’s corn production in the current season is now at 121.2 million tons, down 0.5% from June’s outlook, StoneX said in an emailed message Monday.

Forecast reduced due to a 0.6% smaller winter corn crop expected, at 92.9 million tons, as above average drier weather slashed yields in Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Tocantins states, StoneX said

Total corn crop outlook is 13% less than in previous season 2022-23

Estimate for ending stocks at 2023-24 season cut by 1.9% to 14.3 million tons with the prospect of shorter production

Corn exports outlook kept at 40 million tons, domestic use at 84 million tons

 

Russia’s 2024-25 Wheat Production Seen Below Average: MARS

Russia’s wheat crop is forecast at 82.5 million tons this year, about 5% below the five-year average, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday in a report.

• Compares with 93.6 million tons in 2023
• Adverse conditions for winter plantings was the key reason for the drop in production
  • Dry soil and then excessive rains hampered sowing
  • There was winter frost-kill damage in the Volga region, and unseasonable frosts in May caused considerable damage in the Central and Southern regions
• Drought in southern Russia combined with a heat wave in June further lowered the yield outlook for winter cereals
• Sowing of corn had good progress, although some regions in southern Russia are presenting below-average soil moisture: MARS

 

Argentina grain export dollars up near $2 bln in June

Sales from Argentina’s grains exports brought a total $1.98 billion in June, up by a quarter compared to the same month last year, the CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grains exporters said on Monday.

Compared to the previous month, however, export income from the country’s main cash crops fell 24%, though the accumulated sum through the first half of this year remains stable compared to the same period last year.

Argentina is one of the world’s top exporters of processed soybeans, corn and wheat. Proceeds from their sale provide central bank coffers their largest source of the U.S. dollars they need to pay down debt and finance imports.

CIARA-CEC attributed the June figure to export duties applied after the government of President Javier Milei came to power last December, as well as weather impacts on corn and soybean harvests and “the relationship between input costs and grains.”

“Grains exports continue to work with high levels of idle capacity, as well as the oil industry, suffering permanent negative margins,” the chamber said in a statement.

The country’s agro-industrial sector has been plagued by idle capacity of close to 70%, it added.

Argentina’s agro-export firms represent nearly half of the country’s exports.

Soybean meal is the country’s main export, last year comprising 12% of shipments in value terms, followed by corn at 11% and soybean oil at close to 7%, according to the national statistics agency.

Last month, the Rosario grains exchange forecast that a more moderate La Niña weather phenomenon in coming months represented a positive development for the soybean and corn crops, with both likely set to receive more rain than previously expected.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Pace of trades is slow, but prices move up in June

In the offseason period and due to the consequent low wheat supply, especially the high-quality product, quotations remained increasing in June. The US dollar valuation against Real also sustained prices in Brazil, since imports become more expensive.

The pace of trades, in turn, was slow in June. Producers are focused on the planting of the next season, and sellers who are operating in the spot market ask for higher values. As for the demand, many players from mills claim to have stocks and they do not need to purchase large amounts.

According to data from Cepea, between June 21 and 28, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) moved up 0.06% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.95% in Santa Catarina. In Paraná, on the other hand, values dropped 0.12% In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations downed 0.69% in São Paulo and remained stable in Santa Catarina. In Paraná, prices rose 2.78% and 1.49% in Rio Grande do Sul. Dollar quotations increased 2.63% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.588 on June 28.

In June, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,516.78 per ton, 9% more than in May/24 and 7% above that in June/23, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,422.08/ton, 10.9% up in one month and +10.2% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.626.38/ton, +8.2% and +9.2% in the same comparisons.

CROPS – In Paraná, data from Seab/Deral indicate that the area changed from 1.12 million hectares to 1.15 million hectares – some producers were encouraged by higher prices. Up to June 27, the planting had reached 94% of the total. The productivity is expected at 3,300 kilos per hectare in Paraná, which would result in an output of 3.8 million tons.

In Rio Grande do Sul, Emater says that the 2024 production is estimated at 4.068 million tons, 55% more than in 2023 (2.62 million tons). Productivity may total 3,100 kg/ha, 77.05% more than the crop before (1.751 kg/ha). The area can reduce 13%, to 1.312 million hectares.

BYPRODUCTS – From June 21-28, values of wheat bran in bags upped 1.17% and prices of the product in bulk increased 1.18%.

 

 

 

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