Global Ag News for Aug 25th

TODAY – WEEKLY EIA ENERGY REPORT

Wheat prices overnight are down 10 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal down $0.21; Soyoil down 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3/4 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans up 35 1/2; Soymeal down $0.15; Soyoil up 3.93.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 27 in HRW, up 20 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 24 1/4; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil down 2.59.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 121 yuan ; Soymeal up 21; Soyoil up 140; Palm oil up 134; Corn up 3 — Malasyian Palm is up 47. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 47 ringgit (+1.09%) at 4350.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Aug. 24 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 9,000 corn, sellers of 17,000 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 6,500 soyoil.

There were changes in registrations (-29 Soymeal). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 298 Soyoil; 5 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 24 were: SRW Wheat down 1,374 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,564, Corn down 3,106, Soybeans down 2,060, Soymeal down 3,003, Soyoil down 2,840.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that begins Sept. 1.
• CORN SALE: The USDA confirmed private sales of 125,300 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico, also for 2021/22 delivery.
• SOYBEAN PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp bought about 3,700 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in an international tender for the same volume which closed on Aug. 19
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 81,853 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Qatar is seeking about 100,000 tonnes of bagged barley for delivery in three lots in a tender with an Aug. 18 offers deadline
• DURUM TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency, ONICL, issued a tender to import around 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT FLOUR TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour to be sourced from optional origins
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase an estimated 168,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat

India Allows Import of 1.2M Tons of Genetically Modified Soymeal

The government has allowed imports of 1.2 million tons of crushed de-oiled GM soybean meal to be used as poultry and fish feed, according to a statement from the commerce ministry.

• Shipments can be done until Oct. 31 or till further orders, whichever earlier: statement
• The move will benefit poultry farmers and fishermen
• The relaxation followed an approval by the environment ministry

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 20 are based on nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly higher than last week at 975k b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 21.519m bbl vs 21.558m a week ago

Trade estimates for Statistics Canada crop production report

Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its estimates of Canadian crop production, on Monday, Aug. 30 at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Canadian Farmers Make Smallest Canola Delivery Since 2013

Farmers in the world’s biggest canola-producing country delivered 0.7 million metric tons of the oilseed in July, Statistics Canada data show Tuesday.

• Delivery was the lowest monthly total since August 2013: data
  • Down 47% m/m and down 65% y/y
  • NOTE: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada pegged canola carry-out stocks at 0.7m tons in July, well below the five-year average of 2.7m tons
• Deliveries of all major grains dropped to 3.4m tons in July, -47% y/y
  • July wheat deliveries at nearly 2.4m tons, -38% y/y

Canada Canola Crush at 817K Tons in July: StatsCan

Canola processing rose 1.3% in July from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Tuesday on agency’s website.

• Oil production totaled 362k tons, and meal output at 473k tons
• Aug.-July crushings up 2.8% from year ago to 10.41m tons
• NOTE: Canada is the world’s top canola grower

Manitoba’s Untimely Downpours Will Downgrade Cereal Crops

Rains came too late and will further compromise quality in much of the unharvested cereal crops, provincial government says Tuesday.

• Some soybean, corn, potato and sunflower crops could improve from the precipitation; rain also too late for canola
• Showers brought a month’s worth of moisture to most of Manitoba’s agricultural regions, following drought
  • Large parts of Manitoba received over 25% of normal growing season rains in a single week
  • Rainfall in some districts remains below 30-year average, while in others it rose above normal after drought hurt yields
• Harvest is 30% complete in the key agricultural Canadian province, slightly ahead of four-year average of 26% for the fourth week of August
• 46% of spring wheat is rated good to excellent, along with 41% of barley and oats, and 35% of canola

Argentina says farmers have sold 27.9 million tonnes of 2020/21 soybeans

Argentine growers have sold 27.9 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2020/21 season, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday in a report including data updated through Aug. 18.

The pace of sales was behind that of the previous season, when 29.9 million tonnes of the oilseed had been sold by this time in the year, according to government data.

The 2020/21 soybean harvest in Argentina ended in June with a harvest of 43.5 million tonnes, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. Dry conditions hurt the 2020/21 soy crop, which had come in at 49 million tonnes in the previous season, according to the exchange.

Foreign exchange from agricultural exports is essential for Argentina’s economy, which for two years has been in a state of stagflation, aggravated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Regarding corn, the ministry said 37.7 million tonnes had been sold from the almost-concluded 2020/21 season, about 3 million tonnes more than sales registered at this time last year. The exchange expects a 2020/21 corn crop of 48 million tonnes, with about 95% of the harvest having been completed.

Argentina, Brazil: La Nina Expected to Return, Cutting Average Rainfall

Analysts expect the La Nina weather pattern to return to South America in November and last until January, cutting average rainfall an estimated 20-30% in Argentina and Brazil, Reuters reported Aug. 24.  La Nina often leads to below-average rainfall in South America, where the wet season usually begins in September and lasts through April or May. Past La Nina patterns have caused Argentina’s grain output to decrease as much as 22%.

Corteva to Sell Insect, Herbicide Resistant Soybeans in Brazil

Corteva Inc. debuts insect, herbicide resistant soybeans in Brazil, company says in statement.

• Conkesta E3 soybeans will be available to Brazilian farmers in remaining 2021-22 season
• Corteva expects this will be key to expanding its position in Latin America soybean market
• “We continue to see solid demand for our Enlist technology in North America, and we are pleased to bring this crucial, proprietary solution to Brazilian growers — an action that further strengthens our offering in Latin America,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Collins says in statement

Brazil August soy exports seen reaching 5.986 million tonnes – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 5.986 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 6.249 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.737 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 4.527 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

Ukraine Harvested Record 32m Tons of Wheat on Aug. 24: Ministry

Ukraine’s wheat harvest advanced to 32m tons as of Aug. 24 versus 26.95m tons as of Aug. 28, 2020, according to Agriculture Ministry data.

• Wheat harvest is completed on 97.6% of planted areas, average yields 4.62 tons per hectare
• 10m tons of barley was harvested across 99% of planted areas with average yields of 4.1 tons per hectare

German Grains Harvest Declines 2.7% From Previous Year: Ministry

Germany’s grain harvest forecast at 42.1m tons this year, down 2.7% from a year earlier and 4.8% below the 2015-2020 average, food and agriculture ministry says in report.

• Winter-wheat crop seen at 21m tons, down 3.5% y/y
• Winter-barley crop seen at 9m tons, up 2.2% y/y
• Rapeseed harvest seen at a little over 3.5m tons, up 0.2% y/y but 11.3% below 2015-2020 average
• Second provisional harvest estimate in September and final result may show noticeable deviations from preliminary estimate: ministry

Patchy Indian Monsoon Set to Cheer Palm Traders 3,000 Miles Away

• Palm oil imports seen rising as local oilseed crops may suffer
• Monsoon rains have been 9% below normal so far this year

Faltering monsoon rains in India are posing a risk to domestic soybean and peanut crops, and may prompt the world’s biggest palm oil importer to boost purchases from top growers Indonesia and Malaysia.

The world’s second-most populous nation, where eating fried food is a national tradition, depends on overseas suppliers for as much as 70% of its edible oil needs. Concerns are growing that deficient monsoon rains this year could hurt crops, raise food prices, threaten a nascent economic recovery and boost imports of farm goods.

Inbound shipments of palm oil will be higher in the year starting on Nov. 1 than an estimated 8 million tons in 2020-21, said G.G. Patel, a veteran trader and managing partner of GGN Research. He didn’t provide an estimate for the next year. India mainly imports palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, which are about 2,400 miles and 3,000 miles away respectively from New Delhi.

Malaysia’s Aug 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 988,809 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments decline 12.3% m/m from 1,127,146 tons exported during July 1-25, according to AmSpec Agri on Wednesday.

Malaysia Aug. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports -13.44% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 13.44% m/m during Aug. 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services.

French Wheat Crop at 35m Tons, Harvest ‘Disappointing’: Agritel

French wheat production will total 34.9 million tons in 2021 after a disappointing harvest both in quantity and quality, according to farm advisor Agritel.

• While that’s up from 29.2 million tons in 2020, this year’s production will be below the 10-year average, with yields down to 7.07 tons a hectare
• Unfavorable summer weather hurt grain filling, degrading the quality
• The estimates follow Agritel’s annual survey held Aug. 18-23
• NOTE: Agritel’s estimates come below those by the French agriculture ministry, which pegged production at 36.7 million tons
• Milling wheat will still make up the majority of the production, but the share of feed wheat will be much higher than in other years, which means demand from Europe may be insufficient to absorb the supplies and that exports outside the region may be needed

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rose 9% in Season Through Aug. 22

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 amounted to 2.9m tons as of Aug. 22, versus 2.67m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: The latest data is not complete due to missing figures for Italy, the commission said
• NOTE: Data for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations were South Korea (407k tons), Algeria (371k tons) and Jordan (283k tons)
• EU barley exports totaled 1.99m tons, compared with 1.49m tons a year earlier
• China is the top export market at 598k tons
• EU corn imports reached 1.84m tons, against 2.04m tons a year earlier