Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 2 cents and near 13.18. SMZ is near 391.6. BOZ is near 60.25. CZ is up 2 cents and near 4.78. WZ is up 9 cents and near 5.93. KWZ is up 7 cents and near 7.38. MWZ is up 7 cents and near 7.87. US Fed day. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.
Soybean futures are higher. Dalian soybean and palmoil were higher. Soymeal and soyoil were lower. Debate continues over US soybean yield. It is too early to make an educated guess but early soybean seed size is smaller than normal. Brazil is dry. Conab est the crop near 162.4 mmt vs 154.6 ly and USDA 163. Brazil farmer selling is slow due to lower board and dry weather. US Midwest could see rains over the next 7 days favoring north. 2nd week forecast is drier.
Corn futures are higher. Debate continues over US corn yield. It is too early to make an educated guess but early ear weight and size could be smaller than normal. Brazil is dry. Conab est the crop near 119.8 mmt vs 131.9 ly and USDA 129. Brazil farmer selling is slow due to lower board and dry weather. US Midwest could see rains over the next 7 days favoring north. 2nd week forecast is drier. Weekly ethanol production should be similar vs last few weeks. Stocks remain low. Margins are positive due to higher energy prices and lower corn prices.
Wheat futures are higher. US HRS prices should increase vs feed wheat. Higher feed wheat supply reduce milling wheat supply. Algeria bot 120 mmt. Russia lowest fob price near 237. Germany 241. Egypt is tendering for Nov wheat. Australia remains dry with some crop estimates near 24-25 mmt vs USDA 26 and could go even lower. Last years crop was 39.7.
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