Written Commentary
Grains are higher. SN is up 1 cent and near 8.69. CN is up 3 cents and near 3.34. WN is up 1 cent and near 5.16. US stocks are higher. US stocks rallied Friday on better than expected US jobs data. Crude is higher. OPEC agreed to extend production curbs which should help Crude.
In the Midwest, things will be mainly dry across the region through Monday and then by Tuesday morning, the remnants of tropical storm Cristobal will be working into MO and will go on to impact most of IA, MN, the NW 1/3rd of IL and most of WI later Tuesday into Wednesday. US Midwest 6-10 day outlook has mixed ideas from the models. The European sees dry weather to dominate all of the region, while the GFS sees rains to fall in most of MO, IA, MN and WI. 11-16 day- The ridging that develops in the 6-10 day period is indicated by the models to continue through this period as well. Southern US Plains 6-10 day looks to be dry in most areas for this period. Delta 6-10 day sees little in the way of rainfall to occur.
This week, USDA will update US/World supply and demand. Trade looks for US corn crop near 15,917 mil bu vs USDA 15.995 and soybean crop at 4,138 mil bu vs 4.125. Trade also looks for US 2019/20 corn carryout near 2,163 vs 2,098, soybean near USDA 580 and Wheat near USDA 978. Trade looks for US 2020/2 corn carryout near 3.356 vs USDA 3,318, soybean near 429 vs USDA 405 and wheat near USDA 909.
Some feel given the numbers the soybean futures market could be 20-25 cents from a seasonal high. Trade will watch to see if funds want to cover any of their record corn short. Most feel Dec corn is near season high. Black Sea weather forecast is dry. Still large World supplies could limit the upside in Sep Chicago wheat near 5.30 and KC Sep wheat near 4.85. Managed Funds were shorter corn and soymeal than expected.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; net bought 1,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 267,000 Corn; net long 25,000 Soybeans; net short 46,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 14,000 Soyoil.
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