Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean ended mixed. Trade still looking for a spark that could send futures higher. Fact US gulf export capacity is limited due to the Hurricane and backs up grain into the country remains negative. It also limits new export sales. Some hope that by next week electricity may be restored to all the elevators and damage can be assessed and repaired. Most feel Brazil and Argentina may be out of extra soybeans for export. China continues to need soybean to crush. On Friday, USDA will revise US 2021 soybean crop and adjust demand. Trade est US soybean yield near 50.4 vs USDA 50.0 and a crop of 4,377 mil bu vs USDA 4,339. Still, weekly crop ratings are below August 1 and last year. Best crops remain in KY, LA, MS, WI and TN. Lowest rated crops are in MN, ND, SD and IA. SX is on hold near 12.79.
CORN
Corn futures were mixed. CZ ended near 5.10. CH2 ended near 5.19. CN2 ended near 5.26. CZ2 ended near 4.97. Some feel futures could remain under pressure through harvest and due to a lack of new export sales. Demand bears could see harvest lower near 4.80 CZ. US farmers remain reluctant sellers due to lower futures and lower basis. Some are looking for a rally in basis or narrowing of spreads to signal a harvest low or possible post harvest bounce. One US Gulf elevator is loading vessels. Rest are waiting for electricity. Some hope that electricity might be restored next week and elevators can access damage and begin repairs. Barge freight has rallied. This has dropped basis to farmers and slowed new cash sales. USDA dropped weekly US corn G/E ratings from 60 pct to 59. Ratings are below last year. Some feel USDA could drop the yield due to dry August. Others feel reports of higher yields where harvest is starting could suggest a higher yield. Trade est yield near 175.9 vs USDA 174.6, Trade also est US 20/21 carryout near 1,169 mil bu vs USDA 1,117 and 21/22 carryout near 1,382 vs USDA 1,242. USDA could also increase US 2021 planted acres. Most recent farmer crop insurance enrollment data suggest acres could be increased 1.0 million. Since the “bullish” August report CZ has loss 87 cents.
WHEAT
Wheat futures continue to slide lower. Higher than expected Canada July 31 wheat stocks trigger new selling. This followed a higher than expected estimate of Australia wheat crop. Canada what stocks were 5.7 mmt vs 4.8 expected and 5.5 last hear. Some rain in parts of Canada may slow harvest there. Russia wheat acres remain dry for the spring crop and planting of the 2022 winter crop. Nigeria bought US HRW. Some link this due to concern about EU quality. Egypt bought Ukraine and Russia wheat in their tender. WZ ended near 7.09. KWZ ended near 7.05. MWZ ended near 8.94. WZ remains in a 7.00 to 7.40 range. 5 pct of US 2022 Winter wheat crop is planted vs 3 average. Recent farmer poll suggested US all wheat acres could increase to 49.7 million vs 46.7 last year. Trade est US 21/22 wheat carryout near 616 vs USDA 627. Range was 579-652.Trade est World wheat end stocks near 279 mmt vs USDA 279. Non China and India stocks are near 111 mmt.
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