Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.02-$.03 today while spreads firmed a touch. Dec-24 traded to a fresh 2 month high however failed to challenge resistance at the July high of $4.26 ½. Next resistance is the 100 day MA at $4.30 ½. Support rests at the 50 day MA at $4.04 ½. Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall along the FL panhandle this evening as a Category 3 storm, perhaps strengthening to a Cat. 4. Sustained winds in excess of 100+ mph is expected to cause significant property and some crop damage. Flooding rains of over a foot in some regions of the SE while 2-3” totals are expected to stretch into SE MO along with southern IL, IN and OH. Little to no moisture for the US plains, WCB and NC Midwest over the next 7 days enabling harvest to accelerate. The USDA announced the sale of 115k mt (4.5 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Exports at 21 mil. bu. were below expectations and bring YTD commitments to 580 mil. bu. still up 17% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up less than 1%. Current commitments represent 25% of the USDA forecast, below the historical average of 31%. The only noted buyers last week were Mexico and Columbia both taking just over 6 mil. bu. US corn area in drought fell 1% LW to 25%, still well below the 58% from YA. The Bloomberg survey for next Monday’s USDA report expects Sept. 1 stocks 1.846 bil. bu., up 34 mil. bu. from the Sept. WASDE report and well above the 1.360 bil. from 22/23.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex turned lower across the board with beans down $.11-$.13 making fresh lows late, meal was down $1-$2 lower while oil was down 90–145. Spreads weakened for beans and meal while collapsing in oil. Nov-24 beans jumped out to a fresh 2 month high before correcting. Next resistance is the 100 day MA at $10.81 ½. Support is at the 50 day MA at $10.12. Dec-24 oil had an outside day down after reaching a fresh 2 month high in early trade. Next support is at the 50 day MA currently 41.05. Dec-24 meal seems stuck between its 50 and 100 day MA’s from $317.30 to $333.80. Spot board crush margins slid $.08 to $1.44 ½, with bean oil PV falling back below 40%. Center west and center south regions of Brazil will remain in a hot/dry pattern for at least another week to 10 days. Some scattered rains are possible in far northern Mato Grosso by the end of week 2 while southern Brazil continues to see a good mix of rain and sunshine. Bean exports at 58 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and bring 2024/25 commitments to 646 mil. down less than 1% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Commitments represent 35% of the USDA forecast, still well below the historical average of 45% and are still the lowest in 5 years. Meal sales at 272k tons (-8k – 23/24 MY, 280k – 24/25) were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments are up 8% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 10%. Oil sales at 4.4k tons were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are up 113% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 72%. US soybean area in drought fell 3% LW to 30%, still well below the 55% from YA. Sept. 1st soybean stocks are expected to rise to 347 mil. bu., up from 7 mil. bu. from the Sept. WASDE report and well above the 264 mil. from 22/23.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago and MGEX down $.03-$.05 while KC was $.01-$.02 lower. Dec-24 Chicago failed to trade above the Sept-24 high at $5.98 ¾ before pulling back. No change to drought conditions in E. Ukraine and S. Russia into early October. SovEcon lowered their Russian wheat production forecast slightly to 81.8 mmt, widening the gap a touch with the USDA at 83 mmt. Russia has announced plans to expand grain export operations along the Baltic Sea with a long range goal of boosting grain exports by 50% by 2030. In turn, this would reduce their dependance on moving grain thru the Black Sea which has obviously become riskier in recent years since their invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s grain exports in 2023/24 totaled 62 mmt with 90% being channeled thru the Black Sea and only 2.4% thru Baltic Sea ports. US exports at 6 mil. bu. were below expectations and a MY low. YTD commitments at 411 mil. are up 22% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%. Commitments represent 50% of the USDA forecast, slightly below the historical average of 53%. US WW area in drought plunged 8% LW to 50%, still slightly above the 47% from YA.
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