Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.06 lower. After trading to a fresh 6 week high Dec-24 futures turned lower forming an outside day down closing right at its 50 day MA support. Export sales at 65 mil. bu. (-7 mil. – 23/24 MY, 72 – 24/25) were above expectations. Old crop commitments are still up 37% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 35%. Shipments are up 37%. New crop commitments at 442.5 mil. bu. are up 8% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 2%. Largest buyers last week were Mexico – 32 mil. and unknown – 19 mil. US net farm income is forecast to drop 4.4% in 2024 to $140 bil., much improved from the 26% drop forecast back in Feb-24. Prices may also have been pressured by talk Mexico may once again be trying to limited the amount of GM corn they import. For the soon to be completed 23/24 MY Mexico’s import commitments from the US at 890 mil. bu. represent nearly 40% of the USDA forecast.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was lower across the board with beans down $.18-$.19, meal was $1-$2 lower while oil was clobbered down 135-155. Bean spreads were little changed and remain historically weak. After trading to a 1 month high, Nov-24 beans failed to trade above its 50 day MA resistance before moving lower. While held above the $10.00 level Nov-24 beans also forged an outside day lower. Oct-24 meal also traded to a 1 month high before pulling back. First support is at its 50 day MA at $314.70. Oct-24 oil has so far held support above $.40 lb. Spot board crush margins ended the week at $1.43 bu. with bean oil PV plunging to 38.5%, both at 2 month lows. Little change in US weather with much of the Midwest trending warmer/dryer than normal over the next 2 weeks. Both corn and soybean crops will be pushed toward maturity likely taking the top end off yield potential. Little rain is expected for key growing areas of SA thru mid-month. Dry conditions could delay the start of soybean plantings in WC Brazil, extending the window of US soybean sales in the global marketplace. Exports at 53 mil. bu. (-8 mil. – 23/24 MY, 61 – 24/25) were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments slipped to 1.670 bil. are down 15% from YA in line with the USDA forecast. New crop commitments at 434 mil. are still the lowest since 2019, down 26% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. China/unknown combined to buy 54 mil. bu. of new crop last week
WHEAT
Prices slumped into the close finishing $.08-$.09 lower in Chicago while KC and MGEX were both off $.11-$.14. At the close Dec-24 futures for all 3 classes were all or just above their respective 50 day MA’s. Exports at 12.5 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 378 mil. are up 31% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%. Commitments represent 46% of the USDA forecast, slightly below the historical average of 47%. YTD by class commitments are as follows: HRW +77% vs. USDA +79%, SRW -8.5% vs. -30%, HRS +18% vs. +8.5% and white +65% vs. +25%. The BAGE kept their Argentine wheat production forecast unchanged at 18.5 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 18.0 suggesting recent rains have helped stabilize crop prospects. Russia cut their wheat export tax 19% to 906.4 roubles/mt in the period ending Sept. 17th. Their export price for wheat ended the week at $217/mt unchanged for the past few weeks.
Charts provided by USDA Charts.
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