Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans up $.08 – $.11, meal was $1 – $2 higher, while oil was down 45 – 60. No major resistance for Nov-23 beans until $14.09 ½. Oct-23 meal has pulled back below its 50 day MA at $401.90. Oct-23 oil has slipped to nearly a 2 week low with next support at its 50 day MA at 62.37. Rains did benefit some areas in Eastern IL into IN along with the southern portions of the Midwest in the past 24 hours, however unlikely enough coverage to halt the late season slide in crop ratings. Best prospects for rain into the middle of Sept. are limited to the southern plains and far western corn belt. Crop ratings fell 5% last week to 53% G/E, while the CC index slipped to 79.0, the lowest in 2 months. Current conditions suggests an average yield of 50.7 bpa with production at 4.193 bil. bu., down 50 mil. from LW, however only 12 mil. bu. below the USDA est. in Aug-23. 16% of the crop is dropping leaves, vs 9% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 13%. With much of the nation’s midsection receiving between 5% – 50% of the normal rain in the past 30 days, it appears unlikely the late season slide in crop ratings will stop. Worst case scenario we follow the same pattern as 1999 and 2003 where production was ultimately cut 216 mil. and 408 mil. bu. respectively from the August est. to final. Census exports for July-23 at 47 mil. bu. were roughly 5 mil. bu. above the pace of inspections. Conab kept their Brazilian production est. unchanged at 154.6 mmt, just shy of the USDA forecast of 156 mmt. They raised their export forecast 1.3 mmt to 96.9 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 94 mmt. India’s vegetable oil imports are expected to grow 18% in the 22/23 MY to 16.5 mmt with palm oil imports at 10 mmt, soyoil 3.7 mmt, and 2.8 mmt of sunflower oil
CORN
Prices closed steady to $.01 lower as Dec-23 remains stuck in a $4.75 – $5.05 trading range. Prices fell under pressure around midday following wire service reports that the Biden administration is delaying until Dec-23 whether corn-based aviation fuel will qualify for subsidies under Pres. Biden’s climate law. Farm groups are pushing for it to be qualified, while environmental groups argue their inclusion would be counterproductive to slowing “climate change”. Crop ratings fell 3% last week to 53% G/E, while the CC index slipped to 78.8, the lowest of the growing season. Current conditions suggest an average yield of 171.5 bpa with production at 14.803 bil. bu., down 158 mil. from LW and roughly 300 mil. bu. below the USDA est. in Aug-23. 67% of the crop is dented, while 18% is mature, both slightly above YA and the 5-year Ave. Look for harvest progress to be reported next week. Census exports for July-23 at 94 mil. bu. were the lowest in a decade, however above the pace of inspections. Conab raised their Brazilian corn production est. by nearly 2 mmt to 131.8 mmt, still shy of the USDA forecast of 135 mmt. Their export forecast remains unchanged at 50 mmt, well below the USDA forecast of 56 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices were higher across all 3 classes with Chicago up $.09 – $.11, while MGEX and KC were up $.20 – $.25. Markets appears to be adding back war premium with the escalation of missile and drone attacks. Spring wheat harvest advanced to 74% complete very near the 68% from YA and the 5-year Ave. of 77%. The Russian Ag. Ministry estimate farmers have harvested 112 mmt of grain as of Sept 6th. Conab lowered their Brazilian production est. .2 mmt to 10.2 mmt, now just below the USDA forecast of 10.3 mmt. Census exports in July-23 reached 64 mil. bu. up from 43 mil. in June and 57 mil. from July-22. A South Korean feedmill bought 55k mt of Black Sea feed grade wheat in a privately negotiated deal at 275/mt CF. A South Korean flour miller is also seeking 95k mt of Canadian and US milling grade wheat for Nov/Dec shipment.
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