Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.04 higher today as spreads firmed. Dec-24 traded into a new highs for the week while also trading above its 100 day MA resistance. Heavy rains are expected to track across the central Midwest into the middle of next week bringing a wide path of 2-3” of coverage. Some areas in the eastern plains and southern Midwest may see localized flooding with 5-8” accumulations possible. The USDA announced the sale of 781.3 mmt (31 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Roughly 28 mil. bu. was for the 24/25 MY with the balance for 25/26. Late yesterday the BAGE reported Argentine corn plantings advanced 6% to 35% complete, just above the historical average. Ukraine’s grain exports in Oct-24 reached 3.95 mmt, up nearly 59% from YA. Corn exports accounted for 1.92 mmt’s of the grain shipped. Corn is likely to remain range bound until at least next Friday’s USDA data. Leaning towards higher production however slightly lower stocks as strong demand to more than offset the higher supply side. Corn used for ethanol production in Sept-24 at 440 mil. bu. while up nearly 12% from Sept-23, it was at the low end of expectations and down 8% from August. Today’s data also showed an upward revision to last month’s usage by 7 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Not much change since midday in the soybean complex. Beans were steady to slightly lower, meal was down $3-$4 with the spot contract trading to new 4 year low, while Dec-24 oil traded to a fresh 3 ½ month high. Next resistance for Dec-24 oil is the July-24 high at 48.89. Bean and oil spreads firmed up while meal spreads weakened. Higher energy prices along with tightening global vegetable oil supplies fueled the late week price surge in bean oil. Palm oil reached a fresh 2 year high overnight. Yesterday’s EIA data was also supportive for bean oil as usage in August for domestic biofuel production rose 7% from July and is on pace to exceed the current USDA forecast of 13 bil. lbs. by 50-100 mil. lbs. Weather forecasts in SA remain favorable for crop development with a good mix of rain and sunshine over the week to 10 days. Jan-25 beans are back below $10 after poking above this level intraday. Spot board crush margins jumped another $.03 ½ to $1.76 ½ bu. while bean oil PV reached a fresh 13 month high at 43.9%. The USDA announced the sales of 198k mt (7.2 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer along with 132k mt (4.8 mil. bu.) to China. They also announced the sale of 30k mt of oil to India. The BAGE reports soybean plantings have begun in Argentina as progress has reached 3%. Strength in bean oil seems to be the only thing keeping the soybean complex afloat right now. Census soybean crush in Sept-24 at 187 mil. bu. was at the low end of expectations however still a record high for the month. For the first month of data for the 24/25 MY crush was up 7% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 6%. Soybean oil stocks fell 6.3% from Aug-24 to 1.501 bil. lbs. slightly below expectations however within the range of estimates.
WHEAT
Prices were $.02-$.06 lower across all 3 classes today in choppy 2 sided trade. Rally attempts in Dec-24 Chicago was capped right at its 100 day MA at $5.77 ½. Support is at this week’s low at $5.58. Support for Dec-24 KC is at $5.60 ½ and $5.95 for MGEX. No confirmed breakdown yet for Algeria’s recent wheat purchase however volume estimates range from 500-600k mt with the price rumored to be $263/mt CF. Much of the wheat is expected to have been sourced from the Black Sea region, likely Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine. Today’s maps seem to show better moisture coverage in W. KS along with OK and TX panhandles than previous runs. Several lite rain/snow events are forecast for E. Ukraine, S. Russia and W. Kazakhstan over the next week bring modest drought relief. Ukraine’s wheat shipments in Oct-24 reached 1.6 mmt.
All charts provided by QST.
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