Written Commentary
CORN
Inside trading day as prices held on to close up less than $.01. Disappointing not to see addition export announcements with US FOB prices now competitive with or below Brazil. CFTC data show MM’s sold nearly 59k contracts of corn extending their short position to 337k, the 2nd highest ever. Thru yesterday’s close likely a record short at over 353k. Corn ratings rose 1% to 68% G/E as overall ratings remain the highest since 2020. 12 states saw ratings improve while declining in 5 and staying unchanged in 1. Biggest increases were in KS and OH, both up 8% in G/E while ratings fell 6% in PA. 24% of the crop is silking ahead of 18% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 14%. 3% of the crop is in dough stage. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production ranging from 1,043 – 1,069 tbd last week, vs, 1,064 tbd the previous week. Despite hovering near 3 ½ year lows corn hasn’t been able to generate much export demand interest just yet. Usage for ethanol is solid, but not likely to move the USDA forecast much, if at all.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was lower with beans down another $.18-$.20, meal was $3-$5 lower while oil plunged just over $.02 lb. Aug-24 beans carved out a new contract low today with next support at $11.46. Nov-24 beans continue to search for a level to encourage Chinese buying having traded to a fresh 3 year low. Aug-24 meal traded to its lowest level since late April with next support just above $330. Aug-24 oil closed below support at $.47, the May-24 high. Next support is the 100 day MA at $.46. Spot board crush margins (Aug-24) slid $.16 to $1.45 bu. with BO PV falling back to 40.5%. Remnants of Hurricane Beryl continue to push north and east across the central and eastern corn belt. Heaviest rains of 1-3” over the next 48 hours are expected across dry areas of central IL and IN along with MI and NW OH. Soybean conditions also improved 1% to 68% G/E with overall ratings the highest since 2020. Ratings fell in 8 states, improved in 8 and held steady in 2. Biggest increases OH up 10% and KS up 5%. Largest drop was TN down 6%. 34% of the crop is blooming just behind the YA pace of 35% while 9% of the crop is setting pods, above the historical Ave. MM’s sold just over 11k contracts of beans, nearly 14k contracts of meal, while buying over 46k of bean oil cutting their net short position to just under 62k. MM’s appear to be getting some of these position back on today.
WHEAT
Prices did manage to scratch out very slight gains for the day, however finished very near session lows. It was an inside trading day for all classes. Hot/dry conditions to continue around the Black Sea region from E. Ukraine into Southern Russia leading to additional crop stress. Russian export prices reportedly range from $216 – $224/mt FOB down $5-$10 from last week. Wire services are reporting 7 firms participated in Jordan’s recent tender for 120k mt of wheat. Still no results being reported. Winter wheat harvest advanced to 63% well above the 43% from YA and 5-year Ave. of 52%. Spring ratings improved 3% last week to 75% G/E with overall ratings the highest in 5 years. 59% of the crop is headed just below the 5-year Ave. of 60% and YA at 66%.
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