Written Commentary
Soybeans, soymeal, new crop corn and wheat traded lower and off session highs. US stocks were mixed. US Dollar was higher. Crude was higher. Copper was higher.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower. SK ended near 15.49. Range was 15.48-16.08. SN ended near 15.19. Range was 15.18-15.74. SX ended near 13.42. Range was 13.40-13.84. Some feel highs were scored on margin call short covering and liquidation of weak shorts. Most look for no May deliveries but spec longs may have rolled to the July. There was also some talk that market had reached technical objectives and were overbought. Talk of rains across the Midwest this week and next week could also help topsoil. Brazil soybean export basis is near -50 SK while US export prices are near +85 SK. There was talk that US east coast soybean crusher may have bought one cargo of Brazil soybean for import. Most still feel that demand for US 2020 soybean are higher than supply and forecast of drier US Midwest summer suggest a top in futures has yet to be scored.
CORN
Corn futures were mixed. CK ended near 6.95. Range was 6.80-7.20. CN ended near 6.54. Range was 6.46-6.84. CZ ended near 5.62. Range was 5.52-5.93. Some feel highs were made by margin call buying and weak shorts finally liquidating before May deliveries. Longs may have also rolled from the May to July. Some feel that market needed to correct an overbought technical picture. Argentina corn export basis is near -5 CK. US corn export basis is near +70 CK. This could restrict new US corn sales. Trade continues to talk about lower Brazil corn crop and below 100 mmt vs USDA 109 guess. Some could see final Brazil 221 corn exports down 400 mil bu from USDA estimate. 17 oct of US 2021 corn crop is planted vs 20 average. Talk of Midwest rains over the next few days and more rain mid-week next week may have also offered resistance to new crop futures. Still most forecasters look for a drier than normal US Midwest summer which suggest top in market has yet to be scored. ADM CEO suggested final US 2021 corn and soybean acres could be 5 mil bu higher than USDA March estimate. Most of this could be out of last year prevent plant acres and in US NW states. Matif corn futures made new highs. Concern about Europe 2021 weather supportive. There was also talk that south China stocks may be tight.
WHEAT
Wheat futures closed mixed to lower. WK ended near 7.33. Range was 7.26-7.73. WN ended near 7.32. Range was 7.26-7.69. Wheat futures continued to follow corn. Concern about Europe weather helped push May Matif futures to new highs. May open interest remain highs with cash prices over delivery. KWK ended near 7.02. Range was 6.95-7.34. Some feel US south plains weather could turn drier and warmer which could support prices. USDA dropped US Winter wheat crop ratings to 49 pct G/E vs 53 last week. 28 pct of US 2021 HRS crop is planted vs 19 average. MWK ended near 7.29. Range was 7.28 to 7.66. MWN ended near 7.47. Range was 7.35-7.73. Forecast of drier US north plains and Canada prairie summer weather could be supportive to prices. Fact Egypt cancelled their wheat tender due to high prices may have also weighed on futures.
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