Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. SU is down. CU is down. WU is up. KWU is down. MWU is down. Stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Cotton is sharply lower.
SU is near 10.68. Drier US west Midwest weather offers support. Despite warm and dry west Midwest forecast, trade still est US soybean yield closer to 53 bpa vs USDA 52. Cash sales increased when SU tested the 20 day moving average the first time since July 5. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. Brazil July soymeal exports were record high. Most of South America remains dry. World sunoil and rapeseed oil prices are higher and offset lower palmoil prices. Need higher US export demand to push prices higher and move SU closer to 11.00.
CU is near 4.01. Drier US west Midwest weather offers support. Despite warm and dry west Midwest forecast, trade still est US corn yield closer to 182 bpa vs USDA 181. Cash sales increased when CU tested the 20 day moving average for the first time since June 17. Dalian corn futures were sharply lower. Brazil safrina crop harvest is est near 97 pct. Remaining crop is rated 42 pct G/E vs 82 ly. Need stress on US crop or higher US export demand to push prices higher and CZ closer to 4.30.
WU is near 5.43. MWU is near 6.12. US north plains and Canada weather is turning warmer and drier, Russia weather remains dry. First day of annual US spring wheat crop tour found record high wheat yields in EC and S district and highest since tour started in 1994. Average first day yield was 52.5 vs 48.1 ly. USDA July ND est was 56. Talk of slower export demand and lower Russia export prices offset concern about US/Canada dry weather forecast and talk Black Sea wheat crop could be down 12 mmt. Matif futures now trading a premium to US futures.
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