Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
Apparently, the crude oil market has discounted an extremely negative long-term energy demand recovery forecast from the IEA as prices have spent the entirety of the early trade today in positive territory. However, very strong Chinese oil import data has bolstered confidence again in Chinese oil demand with September oil imports up 2.1% over the prior month and January through September crude oil imports up 12.7% on a year-over-year basis.
NATURAL GAS
While the natural gas contract made an impressive range up probe yesterday and returned to the highest level since the major September 25th high, we do not see the bullish fundamental arguments to suggest that prices will remain firm. In fact, US weather has shifted bearish with a very large portion of the US seeing slightly below normal temperatures and the only tropical storm threat more than a week off from any potential US landfall.
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