Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded unchanged. New US soybean export sales to China and unknown offered support. Favorable start to US 2020 soybean crop offered resistance. USDA dropped US 2019 soybean crop 5 mil bu. USDA also increased the crush 15 mil bu to 2,140. This due to higher soymeal export demand. The higher crush increased US soyoil end stocks. USDA left US 2020 crop at 4,125 mil bu. Some feel US 2020 soybean yield could be closer to 51.0 versus 49.8. USDA raised US 2020/21 soybean Crush 15 mil bu. This due to higher US domestic demand and also increased US 2020/21 soyoil end stocks. Oil World est World 2020/21 soybean crop near 363 mmt versus 337 this year and end stocks near 109 mmt versus 101 this year. USDA est World 2020/21 soybean end stocks near 96 mmt. USDA est Brazil soybean crop near 124 mmt and Argentina near 50 mmt. USDA est next year’s Brazil crop near 131 mmt and Argentina at 53.5. USDA increase China soybean imports 2 mmt to 94 and est next year at 96 mmt. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 36 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,604 versus 1,723 ly.
CORN
Corn futures managed to trade higher despite all of the negative equity and energy trade. There were rumors that someone had bought US corn export basis. Rumor was China. Today, US soybean export sales were higher than expected to China. USDA dropped the US 2019 corn crop 46 mil bu. This due to a small drop in harvest acres and a yield of 167.4 versus 167.8 previous . Thus was offset by a drop of 50 mil bu in ethanol demand. Carryout was left near 2,103 mil bu. Some feel final yield could be closer to 2,250. USDA left US 2020 corn crop near a record 15,995 mil bu. Some feel crop could even be bigger. Key now is weather over the next 30-50 days. Some feel US July weather could be warm and dry. USDA left US 2020/21 corn demand near 3,323 mil bu. Some feel final carryout could be near 4,000 mil bu. USDA dropped World 2019/20 corn carryout 2 mmt to 312 mmt. USDA also dropped World 2020/21 corn carryout 2 mmt to 337. This is still an adequate supply. USDA lowered China 2020/21 end stocks 2 mmt to 198versus 208 this year. Weekly US corn export sales were only 26 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,619 mil bu versus 1,905 last year.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower after USDA raised US wheat crop and carryout and World wheat end stocks. USDA estimated US 2020 wheat crop near 1,877 mil bu or up 11. USDA left 2020/21 total US wheat demand near 2,075 mil bu and exports near 950. US 2020/21 carryout is now near 935. Some feel drop in export demand could increase final carryout. USDA increased World 2020/21 wheat end stocks 6 mmt to a new record 316 mmt. USDA increased India crop 4 mmt, China crop 1 mmt and Australia 2 mmt. They dropped Europe crop 2 mmt. They left Russia crop unchanged at 77 mmt but did lower Ukraine 1.5 mmt. USDA raised World trade 1 mmt due to higher Middle East demand. US south plains weather should be warm and dry which should help harvest. Black Sea weather is dry. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 9 mil bu. Total commit is near 214 mil bu versus 225 last year.
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