Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.05 lower today however did bounce into the close of trade. Dec-24 is back below its 100 day MA while giving back a chunk of this week’s gains. Despite the price weakness spreads firmed up perhaps drawing support from an announced sale of 198k mt (7.8 mil. bu.) of corn to an unknown buyer. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry has pegged their corn exports in Sept-24 at 6.42 mmt, down from 8.75 mmt in Sept-23. YTD their exports have reached only 24.4 mmt, down 28% YOY. The BAGE maintained their Argentine production forecast at 47 mmt while estimating plantings have reached 14%, ahead of YA however slightly below the historical average. Corn harvest in France is off to an extremely slow start at only 2%, well behind the 5-year Ave. of 26%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex in choppy 2 sided trade. Beans were down $.08-$.09, meal was $2 lower while oil was down 45-65. Bean spreads were stable while oil spreads weakened and meal spreads firmed up. Nov-24 soybeans remain stuck between resistance at its 100 day MA at $10.72 and support at the 50 day MA at $10.11 ¼. Dec-24 oil carved out a fresh 2 ½ month high before backing off. Support is at the 100 day MA just above $.43 lb. Dec-24 meal closed back below its 100 day MA. Next support is the 50 day MA at $319.90. Spot board crush margins slipped $.04 to $1.73 ¾ with bean oil PV settling right at 40%. Outside of a stray shower overnight and this AM across N. IL, US weather remains favorable for harvest activities thru mid-October. Improved prospects for rain for northern and WC growing regions of Argentina the early half of the week. Central areas of Brazil to see beneficial rains the 2nd half of the week. The USDA announced the sale of 116k mt (4.2 mil. bu.) to China. I’d expect a pick-up in announced sales next week with China returning from their “Golden Week” holiday. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry has pegged their bean exports in Sept-24 at 6.11 mmt, down from 6.4 mmt in Sept-23. YTD their exports have reached 94.4 mmt, up 8% YOY. SA weather forecasts along with developments in the Middle east or Black Sea region will drive prices on Sunday evening.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago and KC down $.12-$.14, while MGEX was $.06-$.08 lower. Lite rains may bring some relief for E. Ukraine and S. Russia by the middle of next week however not likely to put much of a dent in the overall drought pattern. No more than scattered showers for Australia over the next week to 10 days keeping the overall dry pattern intact. Dec-24 contracts are now back below their respective 100 day MA’s across all 3 classes however still holding modest gains for the week. Nearby spreads in Chicago reached new lows. Tensions in the Black Sea region seemed to have settled down a bit in the past 24-48 hours following Russian missile attacks on Ukraine grain infrastructure in the Odessa region earlier in the week. Russia’s Ag. Ministry increased their wheat export tax 6.6% to 1,328.30 roubles/mt for the period ending Oct. 15th.
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