Written Commentary
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CZ has a double bottom near 3.85 and has now traded over the 20 day moving average. World corn farmer remain reluctant seller of cash. Still CZ-CH is at a 17 cents carry. Harvest of a record US crop is expected to keep market in a carry. US export prices remain a discount to Brazil and Ukraine. USDA est US 2023/24 total corn demand at record 14,875 mil bu of which exports are 2,250 mil bu vs 1,662 ly. Ethanol use is est near 5,450 mil bu vs 5,176 ly. Feed and residual is 5,775 mil bu vs 5,485 ly. This leaves a carryout near 1,867 vs 1,360 ly. USDA est average farm price near 4.65 vs 6.54 ly. USDA est US 2024/25 total corn supply near a record 17,038 mil bu. USDA est US 2024/25 total corn demand at 14,965 mil bu of which exports are 2,300 mil bu, ethanol use is est near 5,450 mil bu and feed and residual is 5,825 mil bu. This leaves a carryout near 2,073. USDA est average farm price near 4.20.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher. World soybean farmer remans reluctant seller of cash. SX has not traded above the 20 day moving average since late May. SX-SH is also at a 31 cents carry. Harvest of a record US crop is expected to keep market in a carry. US export prices remain a discount to Brazil. China buying is key to futures. USDA est US 2023/24 total soybean demand at 4,104 mil bu of which exports are 1,700 mil bu vs 1,980 ly and crush 2,290 mil bu vs 2.212 ly. This leaves a carryout near 345 vs 264 ly. USDA est average farm price near 12.50 vs 14.20 ly. USDA est US 2024/25 total soybean supply near a record 4,949 mil bu. USDA est US 2024/25 total soybean demand at 4.389 mil bu of which exports are 1,850 mil bu and crush a record 2,425 mil bu. This leaves a carryout near 560. USDA est average farm price near 10.80
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. WZ is up 3 cents and near 5.51. KWZ is near 5.65. MWZ is near 6.00. Wheat futures are testing the 20 DMA. USDA est US 2024/25 total wheat supply near a record 2,789 mil bu. USDA est US 2024/25 total wheat demand at 1,961 mil bu of which exports are 825 mil bu vs 707 ly, food use 964 mil bu and feed 110 mil bu. This leaves a carryout near 828. USDA est average farm price near 5.70 vs 6.96 ly.
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