Global Ag News for July 16.24

TOP HEADLINES

Affordability in Farmer’s Fertilizer Focus as Crop Prices Drop

Ammonia prices inched up in the US Midwest as fall prepay programs replaced earlier summer fill offers. With Tampa ammonia up for July and fall prices firming in the Corn Belt, the grain’s plunge made fertilizers less affordable. Will they or won’t they Canadian rail strike warnings threaten one-third of global trade.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 3/4 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil up 0.43.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 14 1/2 in SRW, down 9 1/2 in HRW, down 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans down 21 1/4; Soymeal down $5.70; Soyoil down 0.25.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 37 1/4 in SRW, down 28 in HRW, down 27 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/4; Soybeans down 60; Soymeal down $27.10; Soyoil up 1.55.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.6% in SRW, down 13.0% in HRW, down 19.0% in HRS; Corn is down 16.1%; Soybeans down 16.3%; Soymeal down 13.4%; Soyoil down 1.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 26 yuan; Soymeal down 29; Soyoil down 14; Palm oil up 58; Corn down 17 — Malaysian Palm is up 46.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 46 ringgit (+1.18%) at 3941.

 

There were changes in registrations (-22 SRW Wheat, -63 Corn, -132 Soybeans, -117 Soyoil). Registration total: 502 SRW Wheat contracts; 7 Oats; 175 Corn; 55 Soybeans; 1,402 Soyoil; 40 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 15 were: SRW Wheat up 4,593 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,177, Corn down 5,796, Soybeans up 3,420, Soymeal up 2,628, Soyoil up 12,628.

 

Northern Plains: Systems from the Northern Rockies and southern Canada moved through the area this past weekend and provided damaging winds and large hail, leading to some swaths of crop damage. Scattered showers and storms remain possible early this week with drier conditions returning later in the week. Temperatures trended above normal this past weekend, but this week will be cooler. Conditions are fair for crops, but severe storms have not been favorable as corn starts to silk and soybeans start setting pods.

Central/Southern Plains: The Southeast Plains are still cleaning up from remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Some areas across Kansas and Oklahoma could use more moisture, which may arrive mid-week. As a cold front shifts south later in the week, isolated to scattered showers and storms return to the Southern Plains and temperatures are expected to cool down behind the front. Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the Central Plains by Wednesday.

Midwest: Widespread showers and storms are likely through the first half of this week with conditions trending drier for most by Thursday as a cold front sags south, and high pressure returns. Cooler temperatures will arrive by the middle of this week and expand across much of the region by Friday. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for developing crops, but southeastern areas could use more rainfall and severe storms are creating swaths of crop damage.

Delta: An active pattern is likely for this week with showers favoring northern areas early in the week before showers shift south during the second half of the week. The active pattern could lead to some fields of soybeans being too wet as beans continue to set pods. Temperatures are favored to be above normal early this week with a cool down by Thursday or Friday.

Canadian Prairies: Showers this week will be much more isolated with some areas likely remaining mostly dry. Temperatures are also expected to be above normal for western areas this week, which could lead to drought expanding if they missed showers this past weekend.

Brazil: With areas in southern Brazil recovering from recent heavy rainfall last week, winter wheat planting and development are behind. Drier conditions will return across southern Brazil through the rest of this week and possibly into this weekend. Central Brazil has been making steady progress on safrinha corn harvest and this will likely continue this week with mild and dry conditions. Southern Brazil will likely make more progress on safrinha corn harvest this week as compared to the last few weeks.

Argentina: Frosts and mostly dry conditions were unfavorable for developing wheat last week. More soil moisture is needed for the developing crop. Rainfall chances won’t increase until late this week or this weekend with remnants of a cold front moving across northern Argentina. There is still some uncertainty in how widespread the showers will be late in the week. Temperatures will become more seasonable this week after the well below normal temperatures last week.

 

The player sheet for 7/15 had funds: net sellers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 14,500 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, sellers of 5,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa.
• WHEAT TENDER: Egyptian state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) is seeking wheat in an international tender. The deadline for offers is July 16.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp purchased an estimated 204,600 metric tons of rice mainly to be sourced from China in an international tender which closed earlier in July.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.079m Tons of Corn for Export, 169k of Soybeans

In week ending July 11, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 169k tons vs 294k the previous wk, 161k a yr ago
• Wheat: 534k tons vs 343k the previous wk, 273k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,079k tons vs 1,024k the previous wk, 419k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 11

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 11 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 66k tons of the 169k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

NOPA June US soy crush below most trade estimates at 175.599 mln bushels

The U.S. soy crush declined in June and fell below most trade estimates but was still the highest on record for the sixth month of the year, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 175.599 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 4.4% from the May crush of 183.625 million bushels. The latest crush was 6.4% above the 165.023 million bushels crushed in June 2023 and topped the prior June record of 167.263 million bushels, set in 2020.

The crush fell below average trade estimate of 177.936 million bushels, based on a Reuters survey of 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 173.280 million to 189.134 million bushels, with a median of 176.800 million bushels.

The U.S. soy crush pace has trended higher as soy processors have built new plants and expanded existing facilities over the past several years to capitalize on rising vegetable oil demand from renewable fuels makers.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of June 30 fell to 1.622 billion pounds, down from the 1.724 billion pounds on hand at the end of May and below year-ago stocks of 1.690 billion pounds.

Analysts, on average, had expected stocks to dip to 1.669 billion pounds, according to estimates from seven analysts.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.585 billion to 1.750 billion pounds, with a median of 1.678 billion pounds.

 

Brazil’s second corn harvest hits 74%, says AgRural

Brazilian farmers in the key center-south region had harvested 74% of their second corn crop for the 2024 cycle as of last Thursday, up from 63% in the previous week, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday.

The pace of work was well above the 36% level seen a year earlier, as farmers in large states such as Mato Grosso enjoyed good weather during the harvest.

Brazil’s second corn crop, which represents aboutthree quarters of the national production each year, is planted after soybeans are harvested on the same fields. It is mainly exported in the second half of the year and competes with U.S. supplies in global markets.

According to AgRural, harvesting work has already been completed in some areas of Mato Grosso, where expectations of good yields have been confirmed so far.

The consultancy said, however, that rains seen in the states of Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul throughout last week limited the progress of the harvest in some regions.

“Even so, the percentages already reaped remain well above historical averages,” AgRural added.

In a separate estimate of Brazil’s second corn crop, consultancy firm Patria Agronegocios said that farmers had harvested 70.51% of fields as of last Friday, the fastest pace on record.

According to Patria’s reporton Monday, the second corn harvest had reached 40.07% of the planted area a year ago, while the 5-year average pace for the period stands at 42.50%.

Farmers in Brazil, one of the world’s largest food producers, are expected to harvest 90 million metric tons of second corn in the present cycle, crop agency Conab said last week.

 

IKAR Raises 2024 Russia Wheat Crop Outlook to 83.2m Tons

The outlook was increased from a prior forecast of 82m tons, IKAR General Director Dmitry Rylko said by email. Rylko says change is mostly due to “higher yield prospects in Volga regions”

 

Asian wheat importers snap up cargoes as global prices tumble

• Asian importers lock in deals to ship about 1 mln tons
• Steep price falls spur importers to book shipments
• Black Sea milling wheat sold at about $265 to $270 a ton
• Bangladesh among top Asian importers, takes 4 panamax cargoes

Asian wheat buyers have stepped up purchases in recent weeks, taking cargoes from the Black Sea region as they returned to the market after a long gap, drawn by a fall in global prices to their lowest in four months.

Regional millers producing flour and animal feed have signed deals to buy close to one million metric tons of wheat to be shipped from Bulgaria, Russia, Romania and Ukraine, during August to September, according to two Singapore-based traders.

“Millers have been active, we have seen good demand as prices have dropped significantly,” said one of the traders. “Black Sea wheat is in good demand for milling, as well as animal feed.”

Wheat buyers had cut purchases and were running on thin supplies after global prices rallied earlier this year.

Global wheat prices jumped in April with expectations of lower output in Russia, the world’s No. 1 exporter, following fears of crop damage from frost and dryness in key growing months.

While grain processors in Bangladesh and Indonesia are taking Black Sea wheat largely for milling into flour, importers in the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have been booking feed wheat cargoes, traders say.

China, the world’s biggest wheat importer, has been buying larger volumes during much of this year, but it typically sources the grain from Australia, Canada and Europe.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Values register distinct trends

Wheat prices have been registering different movements among regions surveyed by Cepea. This scenario is related to distinct perspectives between purchasers and sellers, who are, in turn, focused on recent price drops in the international market, on dollar fluctuations and on the development of the crops of the new season.

In Brazil, the area may decrease significantly. Data from Conab indicate that 3.069 million hectares may be planted, 11.6% less than in 2023. Productivity, in turn, is expected to increase 25.1% compared to the year before, at 2,917 kilos per hectare. Production is likely to total 9 million tons, moving up 10.6% compared to the season finished in 2023.

Conab projects a decrease in imports from August 2024 to July 2025, at 5.8 million tons. The domestic availability is forecast at 15.55 million tons, and the domestic consumption may total 11.89 million tons. Exports continue estimated at 2 million tons.

In global terms, the USDA indicates production at 796.187 million tons, upping 0.69% against the previous report and 0.92% compared to the crop before. The world consumption is projected by the USDA at 799.94 million tons in 2024/25, for an increase of 0.24% in relation to 2023/24.

CEPEA PRICES – According to data from Cepea, between July 5 and 12, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) downed 0.77% in Rio Grande do Sul, but rose 0.13% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations decreased 0.65% in São Paulo and 2.41% in Paraná; however, they moved up 1.96% in Rio Grande do Sul. Dollar quotations decreased 0.64% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.432 on July 12.

BYPRODUCTS – From July 5-12, values of wheat bran in bags upped 0.82% and 0.7% for the product in bulk.

 

Ukraine’s late crops harvest may fall by 20-30% in most areas, report says

Ukraine’s harvest of late crops may decline by 20-30% in central, southern and eastern regions due to extreme heat, state weather forecasters said on Tuesday.

“Starting from the end of June, the development, intensification and spread of air drought began in many parts of Ukraine, which later combined with soil drought and as of 15 July 2024 covered a significant part of the area with late crops,” forecasters said in a report.

They said 30% to 50% of the overall area under late crops could be affected by drought.

 

Ukraine exported record 420,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil in 2023/2024 season – association

Ukraine exported a record 420,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil in the 2023/2024 agricultural year (July-June), Ukrainian media reported, quoting the Ukroliyaprom association.

“Rapeseed oil exports in the 2023/2024 season reached a record high of more than 420,000 tonnes. Ukrainian rapeseed oil is gaining a firm foothold in the markets of China, EU countries, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries. Positive trends are also being seen for rapeseed meal,” the association said.

This season, “for the first time ever, 1 million tonnes of rapeseed were processed in Ukraine (22.3% of the 2023 harvest), and this despite the fact that rapeseed is considered primarily to be an agricultural export commodity,” it said.

“Higher internal processing of rapeseed and soybean seeds, as well as a significant increase in exports of high added value products oil and meal, underlines the association’s stance on the need to put the conditions in place to process as much oilseed as possible at the country’s own facilities. We see further development of the fat and oil industry in Ukraine as increasing processing not so much of sunflower seeds as of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds, which are still treated as an export commodity. We are counting on support from the agrarian policy and economy ministries in this matter,” the association said.

It also mentioned continued growth in the export of soybean oil and meal, “and, accordingly, their production and processing, especially in January-June 2024,” as well as a significant increase in exports of sunflower oil, including a 1.3-fold increase in January-June 2024 against the corresponding period in 2023 and 1.2-fold for ten months of the 2023/2024 agricultural year.

“Regarding production of oilseeds in the 2024/2025 agricultural year, there are various forecasts from oilseed market participants, with the majority expecting an increase in the production of soybeans and a decrease in production of rapeseed. Production of sunflower seeds and oilseeds in general will practically correspond to the level of 2023/2024. However, abnormal heat is capable adjusting all forecasts significantly,” the association said.

 

Indian Farmers Increase Area Under Monsoon-Sown Rice and Pulses

Farmers in the world’s biggest exporter of rice have so far planted the crop on about 11.56 million hectares (28.6 million acres) of land, up 21% from a year earlier, according to the farm ministry.

The area allocated to oilseeds rose to 14.04 million hectares, a jump of 22% from a year earlier, the ministry said in a statement on Monday.

The country’s June-September monsoon rains have been 2% below normal, according to the India Meteorological Department. Monsoon crop sowing normally begins in late May and peaks in July, while harvesting starts in late September.

 

 

 

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