Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down. CN is up. WN is up. KWN is up. MWN is up. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch and near $78. Gold is lower. CPI, Fed comment and USDA Wednesday.
SN is near 11.86. US soybean crop was rated 72 pct G/E. This well above 59 ly. IL 69, IN 71, IA 73, MN 71, MO 64 and OH 75. July soybean board crush margins traded over 100 cents. Bears looking at slower US soybean exports demand and favorable US crop conditions. Bulls keeping an eye on US summer weather. US exports to date are down 17 pct vs ly. Trade est US soybean 2023/24 carryout at 346 mil bu vs USDA 340. Trade also est US soybean 2024/25 carryout at 448 mil bu vs USDA 445. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower.
CN is near 4.53. US corn crop was rated down 1 pct from last week and 74 pct G/E. This still above 61 ly. Bears looking at favorable US crop conditions. Bulls keeping an eye on US summer weather and increase US domestic and export demand. US export to date are up 26 pct vs ly. Trade est US corn 2023/24 carryout at 2,009 mil bu vs USDA 2,022. Trade also est US corn 2024/25 carryout at 2,079 mil bu vs USDA 2,102. Dalian corn futures were higher. Brazil 2nd crop harvest is near 10 pct.
WN is near 6.12. Turkey announced ban on wheat imports from June 21-October 15. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout at 778 vs 766 last month. New export year. US exports down 7 pct vs USDA est of a up 1 pct. Spring wheat est at 72 G/E vs 60 ly. Winter harvest near 12 pct. One analyst bravely est Wheat futures could make a seasonal bottom this week. Argentina wheat to Brazil. Russia wheat also heading to Brazil. Egypt is tendering for wheat.
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