Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 7 cents and near 13.24. SMH is near 395.7. BOH is near 50.01. CH is down 2 cents and near 4.80. WH is down 4 cents and near 6.24. KWH is down 8 and near 6.34. MWH is down 6 and near 7.24. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. 2024 will remain year of War, US Election, more protest and end of Central Bank rate hikes.
CH remains in a broad 4.70-4.95 range. Trade still worried about higher US Dec 1 stocks and USDA increase US 2023 corn crop in Jan. Brazil corn planting is delayed and could help US exports Jan-Mar. Some fear Brazil corn crop could drop 500-700 mil bu from current USDA est. It was 103-108 across C Brazil over the weekend. EU model forecast 1.00-3.00 inch rains across C/N Brazil later this week. GFS has .50-1.50 of scattered rain.
SH remains near midpoint of 13.00-13.50 range. SMH is below 400. BOH moved near 50 cents. Brazil soybean planting is delayed and could help US exports Jan-Mar. China continues to buy US soybeans. US soybean crush is near record high. SH found resistance near 13.50. on talk of better Brazil weather. Weather models are mixed for this weeks forecast with EU model wetter than GFS. MGDS, MG and Goias saw weekend temps near 103-108 F.
Push pull wheat futures trade continues with overnight futures lower. HRW/SRW spread only +10 vs +180 in May. Recent China business could push SRW over HRW. More US south plains rains are forecasted for this week. Combined 2023 Brazil, Argentina and Australia wheat crops are down 10 mmt but market more focus on end of China buying US wheat and lower Black Sea and EU prices. WH. 6.50 remains key resistance.
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