Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is up 6 cents and near 13.54. SMZ is near 453.8. BOZ is near 50.50. CZ is unch and near 4.63. WZ is down 5 cents and near 5.70. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 6.34. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.28. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower Crude is unch but near $77. Trade is watching Iceland volcano and potential impact on global crops.
Soybean futures remain in a 13.25-13.75 range. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. Central and north Brazil 9 day forecast is dry. EU 10-15 Brazil C/N forecast has showers. GFS is dry Only 57 pct of Brazil soybean crop is planted vs 72 average. Soybean futures will need lower Brazil supplies and even higher US soybean crush and exports to rally back over recent high and avoid a lower trend. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Palmoil and soyoil were higher.
Corn futures are near the lower end of a 4.60-5.00 range. Fact USDA increased US crop and corn carryout triggered new selling. CZ is now down 48 cents from the Oct 20 high and made new contract lows. Corn will need lower Brazil supplies and even higher US demand to rally back over recent high and avoid an even lower trend. USDA raised Black Sea corn supply.
Wheat futures ended last week mixed. Black Sea weather is ok. EU is wet. US south plains HRW is dry. WZ is in a 5.50-6.00 range. KWZ is in a 6.25-6.60 range. MWZ is in a 7.00-7.50 range. South Hemisphere crops could be down 290-370 mil bu but north Hemisphere crop could be higher. This and lower wheat import demand could limit the upside in Wheat futures.
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