Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. USDA report day. Grains are mixed. All quiet on the trading front. SX is up 6 cents and near 13.24. SMZ is near 396.2. BOZ is near 60.62. CZ is unch and near 4.95. WZ is down 3cents and near 6.60. KWZ is unch and near 7.79. MWZ is unch and near 8.434US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. US President said China economy is ticking time bomb.
Soybean futures are higher. Dalian soymeal prices are making new highs. Dalian palmoil and soyoil prices were lower. US OND soybean export prices are competitive to China vs Brazil. Question is; Is China covered for OND or will they need to add to US buying? Soybean bulls do not see SX below 13.00 on higher US crush margins and higher China demand. Soybean bears do not see SX above 13.00 with talk of higher US supply and record 2024 South America crops.
Corn futures are unch. Brazil corn export prices are higher but China demand is increasing. China domestic corn prices are near record high. There are local stories about China corn crop losses due to flooding. No one knows and only import demand will help clarify extent of supply losses. Corn bulls do not see CZ below 5.00 on higher Black Sea export risk and higher China demand. Corn bears do not see CZ above 5.00 with talk of higher US supply and record 2024 South America crops.
Wheat futures are mixed. Wheat futures battling low demand for US exports and negative tech signals vs talk of lower World crops and increase Black Sea tension. Weather supports US SRW 2024 plantings but HRW soils are dry. US SRW export prices are competitive vs EU and Black Sea. Weekly US export sales were higher than expected. Tough to find enough news to rally wheat 50 cents or break 50 cents. Key is Black Sea export risk especially Russia prices and sales destination.
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