Global Ag News for Aug 23rd

TODAY – EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS, COLD STORAGE

Wheat prices overnight are up 10 3/4 in SRW, up 11 in HRW, up 8 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 16 1/4; Soymeal down $0.05; Soyoil up 1.54.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 35 3/4 in SRW, down 22 1/4 in HRW, down 16 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 27 1/4; Soybeans down 61 1/4; Soymeal down $0.79; Soyoil down 4.74.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 26 in SRW, up 42 1/2 in HRW, up 19 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 42 1/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 4.85.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 62 yuan ; Soymeal down 32; Soyoil down 28; Palm oil down 16; Corn down 21 — Malasyian Palm is up 48. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 48 ringgit (+1.13%) at 4313.

The player sheet for Aug. 20 had funds: net sellers of 8,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 17,500 corn, sellers of 15,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 12,500 soyoil.

There were changes in registrations (-45 Soymeal). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 298 Soyoil; 34 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 20 were: SRW Wheat down 2,687 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,015, Corn up 10,407, Soybeans up 6,599, Soymeal down 333, Soyoil up 663.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased some 66,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa in a private deal on Thursday without an international tender being issued
• BARLEY SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO initially bought about 270,000 tonnes of animal feed barley in a tender for the same volume that closed on Friday
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY SALE: An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have bought a total of around 165,000 tonnes of Australian animal feed wheat and Australian feed barley in a tender which closed on Thursday

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase around 3,700 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 400,000 tonnes of wheat.
• DURUM TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency, ONICL, issued a tender to import around 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 24.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat

White House Edges Near Biofuel Plan in Farm-Versus-Oil Clash (1)

• Lawmakers told lower biofuel-blending quotas possible
• Biofuel boosters want Biden to keep campaign commitment

The Environmental Protection Agency is set to send a draft of biofuel-blending quotas to the White House for review as soon as Friday afternoon, marking a key step in the Biden administration’s bid to balance competing oil and agricultural interests.

EPA officials have advised lawmakers and industry stakeholders that White House review of the plan is imminent, setting the stage for the agency to formally propose how much renewable fuel must be mixed into gasoline and diesel in 2021 and 2022 within weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. The people asked not to be named discussing the deliberations.

Some lawmakers have been told to expect relatively unchanged requirements — and even a slight reduction is possible — which could be a blow to producers of corn-based ethanol and soy-based biodiesel, according to one of the people.

U.S. Average Corn Yield Seen at 177 Bu/Acre, Pro Farmer Says

That’s 1.4% higher than USDA’s Aug. 12 forecast of 174.6 bu/acre.

U.S. corn production seen at 15.116 billion bushels: Pro Farmer

• Compares with USDA’s outlook for 14.75b
  • Pro Farmer, the news and marketing division of Farm Journal, issues estimates in a statement following this week’s Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour
• Average soybean yield seen at 51.2 bu/acre, with production at 4.436b bushels: Pro Farmer
  • Compares with USDA’s outlook for 50 bu/acre, output of 4.339b bushels

Corn Yields Top Last Year in Three Iowa Districts

Yield potential for corn also topped the three-year avg in districts 4 and 7 in southwestern Iowa while district 1 was slightly below the three-year avg, according to data Wednesday from the third day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• Yields for district 1 avg 184 bu/acre after 80 samples
  • Compares with 181.3 last year, three-year avg of 184.3 bu/acre
• District 4 yields were 201.1 bu/acre after 73 samples
  • Compares with year-ago avg of 172.4 bu/acre; three-year avg of 184
• District 7 came in at 192.5 bu/acre after 44 samples
  • Compares with 184.7 bu/acre in 2020, 3-year avg of 183.6 bu/acre
• Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square were higher from a year ago and the three-year avg for all three districts
• Soybeans in district 1 were measured at 1,089.4 pods after 81 samples
  • That compares with 1,031.3 pods in 2020, three-year avg of 1,063.7 pods
• Counts for district 4 came in at 1,225.2 after 73 samples
  • Compares with 1,177.4 last year, three-year avg of 1,211.2
• District 7 counts were 1,367.6 after 44 samples
  • Compares with 1,164 pods last year, three-year avg of 1,276.7 pods

U.S. Cattle on Feed Fell to 11.07M Head on Aug. 1

The feedlot herd fell 1.9% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report. Analysts were expecting a drop of 1.8%

• Placements onto feedlots down 8.1% y/y to 1.739m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 4.5% to 1.9m head

Russian Wheat Exports Fall 21% So Far This Season: Agency

Wheat shipments for the 2021-22 season totaled 4.6m tons as of Aug. 19, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.

• That means wheat exports totaled about 800k tons in the week to Aug. 19, compared with about 1m tons a week before
• Exports of all grains are at 5.6m tons so far this season

Russia to harvest more than 127 mln tonnes of grain this year – Putin – Interfax Russia & CIS General Newswire

Russia will harvest some 127 million tonnes of grain this year, which will meet the country’s domestic and export needs, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

“I think this year’s harvest will not be as record as it was last year, due to a whole number of circumstances, but we will definitely harvest more than 127 million [tonnes of] grain. It’s a very good figure, which easily covers our domestic needs and even the export potential,” Putin said during a meeting with United Russia representatives on Sunday.

• Russia to harvest more than 127 mln tonnes of grain this year – Putin
• The agricultural economy is developing at a good pace in Russia, he said.

Malaysia Aug. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports -11.53% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 11.53% m/m during Aug. 1-20, according to Intertek Testing Services.

Brazil soy group chief a target in political conspiracy probe -documents

Antonio Galvan, head of soybean grower lobby Aprosoja, is part of a group of 10 people under investigation for their alleged role in a conspiracy against Brazilian institutions including the Supreme Court, according to court records seen by Reuters.

According to authorities, the people under investigation have “incited the population through social networks to practice criminal and violent acts” on the eve of the Sept. 7 national holiday, when Brazilians observe Independence day.

Supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro have called for protests at the Supreme Court that day, and officials fear they might try to force their way in to occupy the building.

Ukraine 2021 wheat harvest 97.6% complete at 32 mln T -ministry

Ukrainian farmers have almost completed the 2021 wheat harvest, threshing 32 million tonnes from 97.6% of the sown area, the agriculture ministry said on Friday. The ministry, which gave no comparative data, said the wheat yield averaged 4.62 tonnes per hectare.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Dollar appreciation increases international demand and boosts prices in Brazil

The US dollar continues to increase compared to the Real, keeping soybean prices on the rise in the Brazilian market as it makes the national product cheaper to importers. Besides, low supply in Brazil and abroad have influenced valuations too.

With the nearness of sowing the new season and the end of the planning period, Brazilian farmers are taking the chance to sell higher volumes from the 2020/21 and the 2021/22 seasons. However, some agents believe prices may rise even more, keeping the product stocked in order to sell it in the last quarter of the year. In general, there are concerns about the weather in the new season because of forecasts for stronger La Niña phenomenon.

CORN/CEPEA: With liquidity low in BR, Index stabilizes at around 99 BRL/bag

Corn purchasers have been away from the Brazilian spot market, expecting better opportunities to buy the cereal in the coming weeks. These agents are based on both the progress of the harvesting and defrayal debts due in late August and in September, which may lead sellers to agree on selling corn at lower prices, aiming to make cash flow. So far, most farmers have been disinterested in trading corn.

In this context, the trading pace has been slow in the domestic spot market, and prices have stabilized. Between August 12 and 19, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) rose by a slight 0.1%, closing at 99.02 BRL (18.28 USD)/60-kilo bag on Thursday, 19 – this Index has been around 99 BRL/bag since August 12. Sellers have been slightly more willing to lower asking prices this week, majorly trading companies.

In Paraná (PR), supply is currently low. With the harvesting in progress, farmers from this state have reported steep decreases in crops’ productivity. Between August 12 and 19, values rose by 0.9% in Ponta Grossa, 0.5% in western PR and 0.7% in northern state. In the same period, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to corn farmers (over-the-counter market) increased by a slight 0.3%; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose by 0.6%.

In general, agents are focused on exports. So far, prices have been higher in the Brazilian market than at ports. This month (until August 19), the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) is 20% higher than corn prices at the port of Paranaguá (PR). This scenario tends to keep the exports pace slow.

 U.S. Beef Production Rises 4.7% This Week, Pork Up: USDA

U.S. federally inspected pork production rises to 513m pounds for the week ending Aug. 21 from 504m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter rises 1.9% in the week to 2.452m head
• Beef production up 4.7% from a week ago to 544m pounds

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 8% Below Normal as of Aug. 22

India has so far received 589.7 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 644.1 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on Aug. 22.

• The northwestern region got 11% below normal rains
• Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 4% above normal